气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2021.100342
	Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion
	Toimil A.; Losada I.J.; Hinkel J.; Nicholls R.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
卷号	33
英文摘要	Adaptation requires planning strategies that consider the combined effect of climatic and non-climatic drivers, which are deeply uncertain. This uncertainty arises from many sources, cascades and accumulates in risk estimates. A prominent trend to incorporate this uncertainty in adaptation planning is through adaptive approaches such as the dynamic adaptive policy pathways (DAPP). We present a quantitative DAPP application for coastal erosion management to increase its utilisation in this field. We adopt an approach in which adaptation objectives and actions have continuous quantitative metrics that evolve over time as conditions change. The approach hinges on an adaptation information system that comprises hazard and impact modelling and systematic monitoring to assess changing risks and adaptation signals in the light of adaptation pathway choices. Using an elaborated case study, we force a shoreline evolution model with waves and storm surges generated by means of stochastic modelling from 2010 to 2100, considering uncertainty in extreme weather events, climate variability and mean sea-level rise. We produce a new type of adaptation pathways map showing a set of 90-year probabilistic trajectories that link changing objectives (e.g., no adaptation, limit risk increase, avoid risk increase) and nourishment placement over time. This DAPP approach could be applied to other domains of climate change adaptation bringing a new perspective in adaptive planning under deep uncertainty. © 2021 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Adaptation information system; Adaptation pathways; Climate change adaptation; Coastal erosion; Dynamic adaptive policy pathways; Uncertainty
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256146
作者单位	IHCantabria – Instituto de Hidráulica Ambiental de la Universidad de Cantabria, Isabel Torres 15, Santander, 39011, Spain; Global Climate Forum (GCF), Berlin, Germany; Division of Resource Economics, Albrecht Daniel Thaer‐Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social‐Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt‐University, Berlin, Germany; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Toimil A.,Losada I.J.,Hinkel J.,et al. Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion[J],2021,33.
APA	Toimil A.,Losada I.J.,Hinkel J.,&Nicholls R.J..(2021).Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion.Climate Risk Management,33.
MLA	Toimil A.,et al."Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion".Climate Risk Management 33(2021).