气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2022.100402
	Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context
	Boult V.L.; Black E.; Saado Abdillahi H.; Bailey M.; Harris C.; Kilavi M.; Kniveton D.; MacLeod D.; Mwangi E.; Otieno G.; Rees E.; Rowhani P.; Taylor O.; Todd M.C.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2212-0963
卷号	35
英文摘要	The lives and livelihoods of people around the world are increasingly threatened by climate-related risks as climate change increases the frequency and severity of high-impact weather. In turn, the risk of multiple hazards occurring simultaneously grows and compound impacts become more likely. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) proposed the use of multi-hazard impact-based forecasting (IbF) to better anticipate and reduce the impacts of concurrent hazards, but as yet, there are few operational examples in the humanitarian sector. Drought is particularly susceptible to multi-hazard influences. However, challenges encountered in the development of drought IbF systems – including poor understanding of compound impacts and specific hazard-focused mandates – raise important questions for the feasibility of multi-hazard IbF as envisioned by the WMO. With these challenges in mind, we propose an interim approach in which real-time assessment of dynamic vulnerability provides a context for drought-based IbF. The incorporation of dynamic vulnerability indicators account for the local effects of non-drought hazards, whilst the use of a drought-based system facilitates effective intervention. The proposed approach will improve our understanding of compound events, enhance adoption of IbF in the humanitarian sector, and better mitigate the impacts of concurrent hazards. © 2022 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Compound impacts; Drought; Dynamic vulnerability; Impact-based forecasting; Multi-hazard
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256088
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom; International Centre for Humanitarian Affairs, Kenya Red Cross Society, Kenya; Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Netherlands; START Network, United Kingdom; Kenya Meteorological Department, Kenya; Department of Geography, School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, United Kingdom; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, United Kingdom; IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Kenya
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Boult V.L.,Black E.,Saado Abdillahi H.,et al. Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context[J],2022,35.
APA	Boult V.L..,Black E..,Saado Abdillahi H..,Bailey M..,Harris C..,...&Todd M.C..(2022).Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context.Climate Risk Management,35.
MLA	Boult V.L.,et al."Towards drought impact-based forecasting in a multi-hazard context".Climate Risk Management 35(2022).