气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Consequence forecasting: A rational framework for predicting the consequences of approaching storms

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2022.100412
	Consequence forecasting: A rational framework for predicting the consequences of approaching storms
	Wilkinson S.; Dunn S.; Adams R.; Kirchner-Bossi N.; Fowler H.J.; González Otálora S.; Pritchard D.; Mendes J.; Palin E.J.; Chan S.C.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2212-0963
卷号	35
英文摘要	As our climate continues to respond to anthropogenic forcing, the magnitude and frequency of individual weather events and the intensity of the weather extremes associated with these, remains highly uncertain. This is a particular concern for our infrastructure networks, as increasing storm-related damage to these vital lifelines has significant consequences for our communities. Effective first response is hence becoming an increasingly important part of the management of infrastructure systems. Here, we propose a novel and rational framework for ‘consequence forecasting’ that enables probabilistic, pre-event decision-making for first responders to effectively target resources prior to an extreme weather event and thus reduce the societal consequences. Our method is unique in that it minimises model bias by using the same numerical weather prediction model for both fault attribution and fault prediction. Our framework can predict failure rates that are within 50% of the true value for more than 50% of the events considered, some 24 h in advance, therefore demonstrating that it can be an important part of increasing societal climate resilience by reducing reinstatement times. © 2022
英文关键词	Climate adaptation; Climate resilience; Consequence forecasting; Decision-making; Early warning systems; Risk assessment
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256076
作者单位	School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom; EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wilkinson S.,Dunn S.,Adams R.,et al. Consequence forecasting: A rational framework for predicting the consequences of approaching storms[J],2022,35.
APA	Wilkinson S..,Dunn S..,Adams R..,Kirchner-Bossi N..,Fowler H.J..,...&Chan S.C..(2022).Consequence forecasting: A rational framework for predicting the consequences of approaching storms.Climate Risk Management,35.
MLA	Wilkinson S.,et al."Consequence forecasting: A rational framework for predicting the consequences of approaching storms".Climate Risk Management 35(2022).