气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in the risk of extreme temperatures in megacities worldwide

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DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2022.100433
	Changes in the risk of extreme temperatures in megacities worldwide
	Rajulapati C.R.; Abdelmoaty H.M.; Nerantzaki S.D.; Papalexiou S.M.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2212-0963
卷号	36
英文摘要	Globally, extreme temperatures have severe impacts on the economy, human health, food and water security, and ecosystems. Mortality rates have been increased due to heatwaves in several regions. Specifically, megacities have high impacts with the increasing temperature and ever-expanding urban areas; it is important to understand extreme temperature changes in terms of duration, magnitude, and frequency for future risk management and disaster mitigation. Here we framed a novel Semi-Parametric quantile mapping method to bias-correct the CMIP6 minimum and maximum temperature projections for 199 megacities worldwide. The changes in maximum and minimum temperature are quantified in terms of climate indices (ETCCDI and HDWI) for the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). Cities in northern Asia and northern North America (Kazan, Samara, Heihe, Montréal, Edmonton, and Moscow) are warming at a higher rate compared to the other regions. There is an increasing and decreasing trend for the warm and cold extremes respectively. Heatwaves increase exponentially in the future with the increase in warming, that is, from SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5. Among the CMIP6 models, a huge variability is observed, and this further increases as the warming increases. All climate indices have steep slopes for the far future (2066–2100) compared to the near future (2031–2065). Yet the variability among CMIP6 models in near future is high compared to the far future for cold indices. © 2022
英文关键词	CMIP6 projections; ETCCDI indices; Extreme temperature; Heatwaves; Megacities; Temperature trends
语种	英语
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/256055
作者单位	Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon and Canmore, Canada; Global Institute for Water Security, University of Saskatchewan, Canada; Department of Civil, Geological and Environmental Engineering, University of Saskatchewan, Canada; Department of Irrigation and Hydraulics Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza, Egypt; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Calgary, Canada; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rajulapati C.R.,Abdelmoaty H.M.,Nerantzaki S.D.,et al. Changes in the risk of extreme temperatures in megacities worldwide[J],2022,36.
APA	Rajulapati C.R.,Abdelmoaty H.M.,Nerantzaki S.D.,&Papalexiou S.M..(2022).Changes in the risk of extreme temperatures in megacities worldwide.Climate Risk Management,36.
MLA	Rajulapati C.R.,et al."Changes in the risk of extreme temperatures in megacities worldwide".Climate Risk Management 36(2022).