气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing glacier retreat and its impact on water resources in a headwater of Yangtze River based on CMIP6 projections

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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142774
	Assessing glacier retreat and its impact on water resources in a headwater of Yangtze River based on CMIP6 projections
	Gao, Hongkai; Feng, Zijing; Zhang, Tong; Wang, Yuzhe; He, Xiaobo; Li, Hong; Pan, Xicai; Ren, Ze; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Wenxin; Duan, Zheng
通讯作者	Chen, X (通讯作者)，East China Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ China, Shanghai, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
卷号	765
英文摘要	Glacier retreat caused by global warming alters the hydrological regime and poses far-reaching challenges to water resources and nature conservation of the headwater of Yangtze River, and its vast downstream regions with dense population. However, there is still lack of a robust modeling framework of the climate-glacier-streamflow in this water tower region, to project the future changes of glacier mass balance, glacier geometry, and the consequent impacts on runoff. Moreover, it is imperative to use the state-of-the-art sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess glacio-hydrology variations in future. In this study, we coupled a glacio-hydrological model (FLEXG) with a glacier retreat method (Delta h-parameterization) to simulate glacio-hydrological processes in the Dongkemadi Glacier (over 5155 m.a.s.l), which has the longest continuous glacio-hydrology observation on the headwater of Yangtze River. The FLEXG-Delta h model was forced with in-situ observed meteorological data, radar ice thickness, remote sensing topography and land cover data, and validated by measured runoff. The results showed that the model was capable to simulate hydrological processes in this glacierized basin, with Kling-Gupta efficiency (I-KGE) of daily runoff simulation 0.88 in calibration and 0.70 in validation. Then, forcing by the bias-corrected meteorological forcing from the eight latest CMIP6 Earth system models under two climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), we assessed the impact of future climate change on glacier response and its hydrological effects. The results showed that, to the end of simulation in 2100, the volume of the Dongkemadi Glacier would continuously retreat. For the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the glacier volume will decrease by 8.7 x 10(8) m(3) (74%) and 10.8 x 10(8) m(3) (92%) respectively in 2100. The glacier runoff will increase and reach to peak water around 2060 to 2085, after this tipping point water resources will likely decrease. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
关键词	TIBETAN PLATEAU HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY MOUNTAIN GLACIERS MASS-BALANCE MODEL ICE VARIABILITY TOPOGRAPHY CATCHMENTS
英文关键词	Climate change; Glacier retreat; FLEXG-Delta h; Yangtze River; Tibetan Plateau; CMIP6
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000616232300020
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/255114
作者单位	[Gao, Hongkai; Chen, Xi] East China Normal Univ, Key Lab Geog Informat Sci, Minist Educ China, Shanghai, Peoples R China; [Gao, Hongkai; Feng, Zijing; Chen, Xi] East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Tong] Los Alamos Natl Lab, Fluid Dynam & Solid Mech Grp, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA; [He, Xiaobo] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Li, Hong] Norwegian Water Resources & Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway; [Pan, Xicai] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil Sci, State Key Lab Soil & Sustainable Agr, Nanjing, Peoples R China; [Ren, Ze] Beijing Normal Univ, Adv Inst Nat Sci, Zhuhai 519085, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Wenxin; Duan, Zheng] Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden; [Zhang, Wenxin] Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Permafrost CENPERM, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, Copenhagen, Denmark; [Wang, Yuzhe] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao, Hongkai,Feng, Zijing,Zhang, Tong,et al. Assessing glacier retreat and its impact on water resources in a headwater of Yangtze River based on CMIP6 projections[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,765.
APA	Gao, Hongkai.,Feng, Zijing.,Zhang, Tong.,Wang, Yuzhe.,He, Xiaobo.,...&Duan, Zheng.(2021).Assessing glacier retreat and its impact on water resources in a headwater of Yangtze River based on CMIP6 projections.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,765.
MLA	Gao, Hongkai,et al."Assessing glacier retreat and its impact on water resources in a headwater of Yangtze River based on CMIP6 projections".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 765(2021).