气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/healthcare9101292
	Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries
	Zhao, Zebin; Li, Xin; Liu, Feng; Jin, Rui; Ma, Chunfeng; Huang, Bo; Wu, Adan; Nie, Xiaowei
通讯作者	Li, X (通讯作者)，Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China. ; Li, X ; Nie, XW (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Natl Tibetan Plateau Data Ctr, State Key Lab Tibetan Plateau Earth Syst Resource, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China. ; Nie, XW (通讯作者)，Alliance Int Sci Organizat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
EISSN	2227-9032
卷号	9 期号:10
英文摘要	The ongoing spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in most South and Southeast Asian countries has led to severe health and economic impacts. Evaluating the performance of nonpharmaceutical interventions in reducing the number of daily new cases is essential for policy designs. Analysis of the growth rate of daily new cases indicates that the value (5.47%) decreased significantly after nonpharmaceutical interventions were adopted (1.85%). Vaccinations failed to significantly reduce the growth rates, which were 0.67% before vaccination and 2.44% and 2.05% after 14 and 28 d of vaccination, respectively. Stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions have been loosened after vaccination drives in most countries. To predict the spread of COVID-19 and clarify the implications to adjust nonpharmaceutical interventions, we build a susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccinated (SIRV) model with a nonpharmaceutical intervention module and Metropolis-Hastings sampling in three scenarios (optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic). The daily new cases are expected to decrease rapidly or increase with a flatter curve with stronger nonpharmaceutical interventions, and the peak date is expected to occur earlier (5-20 d) with minimum infections. These findings demonstrate that adopting stringent nonpharmaceutical interventions is the key to alleviating the spread of COVID-19 before attaining worldwide herd immunity.
关键词	HERD-IMMUNITY MODEL CHALLENGES SPREAD
英文关键词	COVID-19; improved SIRV; parameter estimation; South and Southeast Asia; scenario prediction; nonpharmaceutical interventions
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Health Care Sciences & Services
WOS类目	Health Care Sciences & Services ; Health Policy & Services
WOS记录号	WOS:000713148900001
来源期刊	HEALTHCARE
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/255113
作者单位	[Zhao, Zebin; Liu, Feng; Jin, Rui; Ma, Chunfeng; Wu, Adan] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Remote Sensing Gansu Prov, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Zhao, Zebin; Li, Xin] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; [Li, Xin; Nie, Xiaowei] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Natl Tibetan Plateau Data Ctr, State Key Lab Tibetan Plateau Earth Syst Resource, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; [Jin, Rui] Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; [Huang, Bo] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog & Resource Management, Hong Kong 999077, Peoples R China; [Nie, Xiaowei] Alliance Int Sci Organizat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Zebin,Li, Xin,Liu, Feng,et al. Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,9(10).
APA	Zhao, Zebin.,Li, Xin.,Liu, Feng.,Jin, Rui.,Ma, Chunfeng.,...&Nie, Xiaowei.(2021).Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries.HEALTHCARE,9(10).
MLA	Zhao, Zebin,et al."Stringent Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Are Crucial for Curbing COVID-19 Transmission in the Course of Vaccination: A Case Study of South and Southeast Asian Countries".HEALTHCARE 9.10(2021).