气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic risk of coastal flood and driving factors: Integrating local sea level rise and spatially explicit urban growth

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.129039
	Dynamic risk of coastal flood and driving factors: Integrating local sea level rise and spatially explicit urban growth
	Xu, Lilai; Cui, Shenghui; Wang, Xiaoming; Tang, Jianxiong; Nitivattananon, Vilas; Ding, Shengping; Nguyen, Minh Nguyen
通讯作者	Cui, SH (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Urban Environm, Key Lab Urban Environm & Hlth, Xiamen 361021, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0959-6526
EISSN	1879-1786
卷号	321
英文摘要	Coastal flood risk facing urban communities is increasing due to the compound impacts of sea level rise (SLR) and urban growth. Accurate information on future dynamic risk of coastal flooding and its physical and socioeconomic drivers is essential for planning effective and targeted adaptation. However, the current scenarios regarding urban development are insufficient to predict the future dynamic spatial distribution of urban socioeconomic and physical growth, hindering the exact and dynamic assessment of future coastal flood risk. Moreover, the relative contributions of SLR and urban development to the future dynamics of city-level coastal flood risk have not been examined. Therefore, here we developed a land use-based urban growth scenario for the temporally and spatially explicit simulation of future urban growth in terms of buildings, roads and electrical facilities, and combined it with a local temporally explicit SLR scenario, into a hazard-exposure-vulnerability model, for the purpose of dynamic risk assessment of coastal flooding on the urban built environment in Xiamen, China by 2050, and accordingly examined the relative contributions of SLR and urban growth. Our results demonstrated a good performance of the land use-based urban growth model. SLR and urban growth will increase future coastal flood risk (represented by the expected annual damage, EAD) in varying degrees, but their combination is projected to exacerbate future flood damages significantly, indicating that considering either SLR or urban growth in isolation will underestimate future coastal flood risk. Moreover, the relative contributions of SLR and urban growth are dynamic over time, depending on the rate of SLR and the stage of urbanization: for example, the change in coastal flood risk is mainly attributable to urban growth in the phase of rapid urbanization before 2033 in Xiamen, yet the contribution of urban growth then becomes less important compared to SLR, when urbanization slows down, while SLR reaches a threshold after accelerating growth. The approach and results of our study can be considered a decision support tool, to help decision makers assess future coastal flood risk and detect the relative importance of each driving force, in order to employ land use planning, nature-based solutions and engineering protection, to achieve sustainable and resilient coastal cities.
关键词	STORM-SURGE CLIMATE-CHANGE ADAPTATION LAND MANAGEMENT IMPACTS HAZARD RIVER
英文关键词	Sea level rise; Land use change; Urban growth; Coastal flood risk; Resilient coasts
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000705777200099
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/255001
作者单位	[Xu, Lilai] Sichuan Univ, Inst Disaster Management & Reconstruct, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China; [Xu, Lilai] Sichuan Univ, Res Ctr Integrated Disaster Risk Reduct & Emergen, Chengdu 610065, Peoples R China; [Cui, Shenghui; Ding, Shengping] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Urban Environm, Key Lab Urban Environm & Hlth, Xiamen 361021, Peoples R China; [Wang, Xiaoming] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Tang, Jianxiong] Xiamen Municipal Nat Resources & Planning Bur, Xiamen 361012, Peoples R China; [Nitivattananon, Vilas] Asian Inst Technol, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand; [Nguyen, Minh Nguyen] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Land & Water, Clayton, Vic 3168, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Lilai,Cui, Shenghui,Wang, Xiaoming,et al. Dynamic risk of coastal flood and driving factors: Integrating local sea level rise and spatially explicit urban growth[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,321.
APA	Xu, Lilai.,Cui, Shenghui.,Wang, Xiaoming.,Tang, Jianxiong.,Nitivattananon, Vilas.,...&Nguyen, Minh Nguyen.(2021).Dynamic risk of coastal flood and driving factors: Integrating local sea level rise and spatially explicit urban growth.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,321.
MLA	Xu, Lilai,et al."Dynamic risk of coastal flood and driving factors: Integrating local sea level rise and spatially explicit urban growth".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 321(2021).