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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abd132
	Reduced impacts of heat extremes from limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C over Mediterranean regions
	Yu, Hao; Wu, Di; Piao, Xiuting; Zhang, Tianyi; Yan, Yu; Tian, Yuan; Li, Qian; Cui, Xuefeng
通讯作者	Cui, XF (通讯作者)，Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. ; Cui, XF (通讯作者)，Univ Coll Dublin, Sch Math & Stat, Dublin, Ireland.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1748-9326
卷号	16 期号:1
英文摘要	Heat extremes have a serious impact on humans and on agriculture around the world. As one of the prominent climate change 'hot spots,' the Mediterranean area, especially the eastern portion, is expected to be more vulnerable to heat exposure than other regions due to its high population density and urbanization rate. The Paris Agreement includes the goal of 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 degrees C above preindustrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C above preindustrial levels'. It is interesting to study how heat extremes would change in the Mediterranean area in a +1.5 degrees C and +2 degrees C global warming world and how they would impact humans and agriculture. Based on high resolution climate scenario data from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment Mediterranean, we calculate several heat extreme indices to study heat extreme changes in the future. We found that in most Mediterranean areas, both daytime and nighttime heat wave intensity and frequency will have a robust increase in the 21st century compared with that of the historical period, with the most prominent areas located in northwest Africa, the Iberian Peninsula, Italy and Middle East. Meanwhile, nighttime heat waves should be garnering more attention because more moderate and extreme events happen in nighttime than in daytime. If the global warming level is limited to 2 degrees C or even 1.5 degrees C, the percentage of population exposed to dangerous events (especially one-in-20 year events) and yield loss from maize harvested areas may be much less in the future than the percentage affected during 3 degrees C warming period. Moreover, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C would result in an additional 20%-25% reduction of exposure.
关键词	MAIZE YIELD CLIMATE EUROPE PROJECTIONS MORTALITY DROUGHT 1.5-DEGREES-C 2-DEGREES-C PATTERNS EXPOSURE
英文关键词	heat extremes; 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C; Mediterranean; CORDEX; population exposure; agricultural impacts
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000603527300001
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254928
作者单位	[Yu, Hao; Piao, Xiuting; Yan, Yu; Tian, Yuan; Cui, Xuefeng] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Wu, Di] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change Cold &, Lanzhou, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Tianyi] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Li, Qian] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Key Lab Middle Atmosphere & Global Environm Obser, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Cui, Xuefeng] Univ Coll Dublin, Sch Math & Stat, Dublin, Ireland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yu, Hao,Wu, Di,Piao, Xiuting,et al. Reduced impacts of heat extremes from limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C over Mediterranean regions[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,16(1).
APA	Yu, Hao.,Wu, Di.,Piao, Xiuting.,Zhang, Tianyi.,Yan, Yu.,...&Cui, Xuefeng.(2021).Reduced impacts of heat extremes from limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C over Mediterranean regions.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(1).
MLA	Yu, Hao,et al."Reduced impacts of heat extremes from limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C over Mediterranean regions".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.1(2021).