气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future variation in mountainous discharge in arid northwestern China: A basin case study

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DOI	10.1007/s11629-020-6498-0
	Future variation in mountainous discharge in arid northwestern China: A basin case study
	Wu Lei; Li Chang-bin; Xie Xu-hong; Lv Jia-nan; Wei Jian-mei; Zhou Xuan; Yang Lin-shan
通讯作者	Li, CB (通讯作者)，Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Minist Educ, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1672-6316
EISSN	1993-0321
起始页码	2287
结束页码	2303
卷号	18 期号:9
英文摘要	To better understand the variation in mountainous discharge (MD) in the future, a basin case study was conducted in the upstream Taolai River Basin (UTRB) in arid northwestern China. The Blaney-Criddle (B-C) equation, Budyko framework, and water balance method were coupled for MD calculations. The outputs of 10 global climate models (GCMs) are synthesized to confirm the future changes in air temperature and precipitation under 3 selected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The climate elasticity (CE) method was used to determine the variation in MD, and the influence of climate factors on that was quantitatively analyzed. The results reveal that the coupling framework of the three methods is suitable for MD determination in the UTRB. The weight-based synthesis of the 10 GCM outputs shows overall increases in temperature (T) and precipitation (P) under the 3 scenarios during most of the time until 2099. The above climate change leads to an increase in MD. According to CE analysis, the positive effectiveness of precipitation is greater than the negative effectiveness of temperature on MD variation, and the increase in precipitation would induce more MD in the UTRB. Uncertainty analysis reveals that GCM outputs dominate in predicting precipitation, while the RCP scenarios influence temperature more. Overall, under the background of climate change, the risk of extreme floods during wet years might increase, and a water deficit will still occur during normal and dry years. The study provides a case example for better understanding MD responses to climate change in the upper reaches of inland river basins. Findings are helpful for reasonable water resource development and utilization in the middle and lower reaches of these basins in the future. As in the Taolai River Basin, considering the future water demand across the whole basin, the development of water-saving technologies and reasonable industrial structures is crucial for a sustainable future.
关键词	STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING METHODS INLAND RIVER-BASIN 1.5 DEGREES-C CLIMATE-CHANGE REGIONAL CLIMATE SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS TEMPERATURE EXTREMES UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS GCM SIMULATIONS TIBETAN PLATEAU
英文关键词	Mountainous discharge; Future variation; GCM outputs; Climate change; Taolai River Basin
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000698385600005
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254837
作者单位	[Wu Lei; Li Chang-bin; Xie Xu-hong; Lv Jia-nan; Wei Jian-mei; Zhou Xuan] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Minist Educ, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Yang Lin-shan] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu Lei,Li Chang-bin,Xie Xu-hong,et al. Future variation in mountainous discharge in arid northwestern China: A basin case study[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,18(9).
APA	Wu Lei.,Li Chang-bin.,Xie Xu-hong.,Lv Jia-nan.,Wei Jian-mei.,...&Yang Lin-shan.(2021).Future variation in mountainous discharge in arid northwestern China: A basin case study.JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE,18(9).
MLA	Wu Lei,et al."Future variation in mountainous discharge in arid northwestern China: A basin case study".JOURNAL OF MOUNTAIN SCIENCE 18.9(2021).