气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Streamflow Changes in the Headwater Area of Yellow River, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1955-2040 and Their Implications

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DOI	10.3390/w13101360
	Streamflow Changes in the Headwater Area of Yellow River, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1955-2040 and Their Implications
	Ma, Qiang; Dai, Changlei; Jin, Huijun; Liang, Sihai; Bense, Victor F.; Lan, Yongchao; Marchenko, Sergey S.; Wang, Chuang
通讯作者	Jin, HJ (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Frozen Soils Engn, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China. ; Jin, HJ (通讯作者)，Northeast Forestry Univ, Inst Cold Reg Sci & Engn, Minist Educ, Northeast China Observ & Res Stn Permafrost GeoEn, Harbin 150040, Peoples R China. ; Jin, HJ (通讯作者)，Northeast Forestry Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Harbin 150040, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
EISSN	2073-4441
卷号	13 期号:10
英文摘要	Human activities have substantially altered present-day flow regimes. The Headwater Area of the Yellow River (HAYR, above Huanghe'yan Hydrological Station, with a catchment area of 21,000 km(2) and an areal extent of alpine permafrost at similar to 86%) on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China has been undergoing extensive changes in streamflow regimes and groundwater dynamics, permafrost degradation, and ecological deterioration under a warming climate. In general, hydrological gauges provide reliable flow records over many decades and these data are extremely valuable for assessment of changing rates and trends of streamflow. In 1998-2003, the damming of the Yellow River by the First Hydropower Station of the HAYR complicated the examination of the relations between hydroclimatic variables and streamflow dynamics. In this study, the monthly streamflow rate of the Yellow River at Huanghe'yan is reconstructed for the period of 1955-2019 using the double mass curve method, and then the streamflow at Huagnhe'yan is forecasted for the next 20 years (2020-2040) using the Elman neural network time-series method. The dam construction (1998-2000) has caused a reduction of annual streamflow by 53.5-68.4%, and a more substantial reduction of 71.8-94.4% in the drier years (2003-2005), in the HAYR. The recent removal of the First Hydropower Station of the HAYR dam (September 2018) has boosted annual streamflow by 123-210% (2018-2019). Post-correction trends of annual maximum (Q(Max)) and minimum (Q(Min)) streamflow rates and the ratio of the Q(Max)/Q(Min) of the Yellow River in the HAYR (0.18 and 0.03 m(3).(-)s(-1).yr(-1) and -0.04 yr(-1), respectively), in comparison with those of precorrection values (-0.11 and -0.004 m(3).s(-1).yr(-1) and 0.001 yr(-1), respectively), have more truthfully revealed a relatively large hydrological impact of degrading permafrost. Based on the Elman neural network model predictions, over the next 20 years, the increasing trend of flow in the HAYR would generally accelerate at a rate of 0.42 m(3).s(-1).yr(-1). Rising rates of spring (0.57 m(3).s(-1).yr(-1)) and autumn (0.18 m(3).s(-1).yr(-1)) discharge would see the benefits from an earlier snow-melt season and delayed arrival of winter conditions. This suggests a longer growing season, which indicates ameliorating phonology, soil nutrient availability, and hydrothermal environments for vegetation in the HAYR. These trends for hydrological and ecological changes in the HAYR may potentially improve ecological safety and water supplies security in the HAYR and downstream Yellow River basins.
关键词	ACTIVE-LAYER THICKNESS CLIMATE-CHANGE SOURCE REGION PERMAFROST VARIABILITY BASIN IMPACTS TEMPERATURE DISCHARGE DYNAMICS
英文关键词	warming climate; streamflow data correction for damming; streamflow forecasting; artificial neural network time-series method; Headwater Area of Yellow River
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS记录号	WOS:000655214400001
来源期刊	WATER
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254768
作者单位	[Ma, Qiang; Dai, Changlei; Wang, Chuang] Heilongjiang Univ, Inst Groundwater Cold Reg, Harbin 150040, Peoples R China; [Ma, Qiang; Dai, Changlei; Wang, Chuang] Heilongjiang Univ, Sch Hydraul & Elect Power, Harbin 150040, Peoples R China; [Ma, Qiang; Jin, Huijun; Bense, Victor F.; Lan, Yongchao] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Frozen Soils Engn, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Jin, Huijun] Northeast Forestry Univ, Inst Cold Reg Sci & Engn, Minist Educ, Northeast China Observ & Res Stn Permafrost GeoEn, Harbin 150040, Peoples R China; [Jin, Huijun] Northeast Forestry Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Harbin 150040, Peoples R China; [Liang, Sihai] China Univ Geosci, Sch Water Resources & Environm, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China; [Bense, Victor F.] Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Hydrol & Quantitat Water Management Grp, NL-6708 PB Wageningen, Netherlands; [Marchenko, Sergey S.] Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Geophys Inst, Permafrost Lab, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma, Qiang,Dai, Changlei,Jin, Huijun,et al. Streamflow Changes in the Headwater Area of Yellow River, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1955-2040 and Their Implications[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,13(10).
APA	Ma, Qiang.,Dai, Changlei.,Jin, Huijun.,Liang, Sihai.,Bense, Victor F..,...&Wang, Chuang.(2021).Streamflow Changes in the Headwater Area of Yellow River, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1955-2040 and Their Implications.WATER,13(10).
MLA	Ma, Qiang,et al."Streamflow Changes in the Headwater Area of Yellow River, NE Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1955-2040 and Their Implications".WATER 13.10(2021).