气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.3390/ijerph18031326
	Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
	Guo, Aijun; Zhang, Rong; Song, Xiaoyu; Zhong, Fanglei; Jiang, Daiwei; Song, Yuan
通讯作者	Zhong, FL (通讯作者)，Lanzhou Univ, Sch Econ, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China. ; Song, XY (通讯作者)，Lanzhou Univ, Inst Cty Econ Dev, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China. ; Song, XY (通讯作者)，Lanzhou Univ, Inst Rural Revitalizat Strategy, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China. ; Song, XY (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
EISSN	1660-4601
卷号	18 期号:3
英文摘要	The rebound effect exists widely in the fields of energy, irrigation, and other resource utilizations. Previous studies have predicted the evolution of different resource utilizations under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), but it is still unclear whether total water use has a rebound effect. This study uses the SSPs as the basic prediction framework and evaluates the water resources and economic status of the provinces in China using the hydro-economic (HE) classification method. Then, combined with the SSPs scenario setting parameters, the conditional convergence model and the method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) are used to simulate the changes in water use efficiency of the different provinces in China under different scenarios. Based on the future GDP forecast data of China's provinces, combined with the forecast of water use efficiency changes, the total water use changes in China's 31 provinces under different pathways from 2016 to 2030 are calculated. Among them, the future GDP data is predicted based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and SSPs scenario settings. Using a comprehensive evaluation of the evolution of the efficiency and the total amount, this study reveals whether there is a rebound effect. The results showed that with the continuous growth in the water use efficiency, the total water use had a U type trend, which indicated that there was a rebound effect in the total water use of China under the different SSPs. Based on this information, this study proposes some suggestions for irrigation water-saving technologies and policies.
关键词	RIVER-BASIN IRRIGATION PARADOX FUTURES
英文关键词	water use efficiency; total water use; shared socioeconomic pathways; rebound effect
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS记录号	WOS:000615180000001
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254729
作者单位	[Guo, Aijun; Zhang, Rong; Zhong, Fanglei; Jiang, Daiwei] Lanzhou Univ, Sch Econ, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Song, Xiaoyu] Lanzhou Univ, Inst Cty Econ Dev, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Song, Xiaoyu] Lanzhou Univ, Inst Rural Revitalizat Strategy, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Song, Xiaoyu] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Song, Yuan] Gansu Meteorol Informat & Tech Equipment Support, Lanzhou 730020, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Aijun,Zhang, Rong,Song, Xiaoyu,et al. Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,18(3).
APA	Guo, Aijun,Zhang, Rong,Song, Xiaoyu,Zhong, Fanglei,Jiang, Daiwei,&Song, Yuan.(2021).Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,18(3).
MLA	Guo, Aijun,et al."Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 18.3(2021).