气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains

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DOI	10.1007/s40333-022-0053-5
	Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains
	Zhang Xueting; Chen Rensheng; Liu Guohua
通讯作者	Chen, RS (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Qilian Alpine Ecol & Hydrol Res Stn, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China. ; Chen, RS (通讯作者)，Northwest Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Xian 710000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1674-6767
EISSN	2194-7783
起始页码	139
结束页码	153
卷号	14 期号:2
英文摘要	As important freshwater resources in alpine basins, glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming, thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development. However, impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited. This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 (RCP, Representative Concentration Pathway), RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial, agricultural, service, and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s. The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6% and 74.5% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090s relative to the baseline period (1980-2010), respectively. Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario, the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10x10(6) and 537.20x10(6) CNY in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively, and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00x10(6) CNY. We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses, respectively. The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater. These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions, industrial transformation, and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.
关键词	SNOWMELT RUNOFF NORTHWESTERN CHINA ARID REGION TIEN-SHAN GLACIER IMPACTS STREAMFLOW MELT BASIN AVAILABILITY
英文关键词	glacier meltwater; snowmelt; freshwater supply; water use; economic losses; future climate scenario; climate change; Tianshan Mountains
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000767211400002
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254452
作者单位	[Zhang Xueting; Chen Rensheng; Liu Guohua] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Qilian Alpine Ecol & Hydrol Res Stn, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Zhang Xueting; Liu Guohua] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China; [Chen Rensheng] Northwest Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Xian 710000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Xueting,Chen Rensheng,Liu Guohua. Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2022,14(2).
APA	Zhang Xueting,Chen Rensheng,&Liu Guohua.(2022).Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,14(2).
MLA	Zhang Xueting,et al."Economic losses from reduced freshwater under future climate scenarios: An example from the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 14.2(2022).