气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants

CCPortal

DOI	10.1017/S0950268822000139
	Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants
	Liu, Feng; Zhao, Zebin; Ma, Chunfeng; Nie, Xiaowei; Wu, Adan; Li, Xin
通讯作者	Liu, F (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China. ; Li, X (通讯作者)，Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China. ; Nie, XW ; Li, X (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Tibetan Plateau Data Ctr, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, State Key Lab Tibetan Plateau Earth Syst Resource, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China. ; Nie, XW (通讯作者)，Alliance Int Sci Org, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0950-2688
EISSN	1469-4409
卷号	150
英文摘要	As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, whether and when the world can reach herd immunity and return to normal life and a strategy for accelerating vaccination programmes constitute major concerns. We employed Metropolis-Hastings sampling and an epidemic model to design experiments based on the current vaccinations administered and a more equitable vaccine allocation scenario. The results show that most high-income countries can reach herd immunity in less than 1 year, whereas low-income countries should reach this state after more than 3 years. With a more equitable vaccine allocation strategy, global herd immunity can be reached in 2021. However, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants means that an additional 83 days will be needed to reach global herd immunity and that the number of cumulative cases will increase by 113.37% in 2021. With the more equitable vaccine allocation scenario, the number of cumulative cases will increase by only 5.70% without additional vaccine doses. As SARS-CoV-2 variants arise, herd immunity could be delayed to the point that a return to normal life is theoretically impossible in 2021. Nevertheless, a more equitable global vaccine allocation strategy, such as providing rapid vaccine assistance to low-income countries/regions, can improve the prevention of COVID-19 infection even though the virus could mutate.
关键词	COVID-19 MODEL
英文关键词	Administered vaccinations; COVID-19; delta variant; herd immunity; vaccine effectiveness
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS类目	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases
WOS记录号	WOS:000763383600001
来源期刊	EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254432
作者单位	[Liu, Feng; Zhao, Zebin; Ma, Chunfeng; Wu, Adan] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Zhao, Zebin; Wu, Adan; Li, Xin] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; [Nie, Xiaowei; Li, Xin] Chinese Acad Sci, Natl Tibetan Plateau Data Ctr, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, State Key Lab Tibetan Plateau Earth Syst Resource, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China; [Nie, Xiaowei] Alliance Int Sci Org, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Feng,Zhao, Zebin,Ma, Chunfeng,et al. Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2022,150.
APA	Liu, Feng,Zhao, Zebin,Ma, Chunfeng,Nie, Xiaowei,Wu, Adan,&Li, Xin.(2022).Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants.EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,150.
MLA	Liu, Feng,et al."Return to normal pre-COVID-19 life is delayed by inequitable vaccine allocation and SARS-CoV-2 variants".EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION 150(2022).