气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Potential distribution and habitat suitability of Picea crassifolia with climate change scenarios

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DOI	10.1139/cjfr-2020-0507
	Potential distribution and habitat suitability of Picea crassifolia with climate change scenarios
	Gao, Yuan; He, Zhibin; Zhu, Xi; Chen, Longfei; Du, Jun; Lin, Pengfei; Tian, Quanyan; Kong, Junqia
通讯作者	He, ZB (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Linze Inland River Basin Res Stn, Chinese Ecosyst Res Network,Key Lab Ecohydrol Inl, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0045-5067
EISSN	1208-6037
起始页码	1903
结束页码	1915
卷号	51 期号:12
英文摘要	The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China is a region strongly impacted by climate change, yet its effects on the keystone endemic forest species Picea crassifolia Kom. are unknown. Understanding the changes in potential distribution and habitat suitability of P. crassifolia forest with climate change will contribute to water conservation, forest management, and ecological protection in the upper reaches of the Yellow River. A total of 129 records of species distribution data and 19 environmental variables were chosen for modeling. The MaxEnt (maximum entropy) model was used to analyze the main environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of P. crassifolia in two periods (2050s and 2070s) and four representative emission pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). The main results are follows: (i) the most important environmental variables affecting distribution of P. crassifolia and percentage variance explained were altitude (41.85%), precipitation of driest month (19.76%), slope (12.35%), annual precipitation (6.56%), precipitation of wettest month (5.73%), and precipitation of warmest quarter (5.12%); (ii) habitat suitability of P. crassifolia shifted to the northwest and into high-altitude areas under climate change scenarios, but its core distribution areas were concentrated in northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Qilian Mountains, southern Ningxia, and Helan Mountains; and (iii) the total area of potential suitable habitat of P. crassifolia will change significantly in the future, and change of habitat area of not suitable, low, moderate, and high suitability exceed 60%.
关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS NORTHWESTERN CHINA QILIAN MOUNTAINS MEDICINAL-PLANT CHANGE IMPACTS SOIL-MOISTURE NICHE MODELS RANGE SHIFTS MAXENT EXTENSIONS
英文关键词	Picea crassifolia; climate change; potential distribution; habitat suitability; MaxEnt
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Forestry
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS记录号	WOS:000733762200002
来源期刊	CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254426
作者单位	[Gao, Yuan; He, Zhibin; Zhu, Xi; Chen, Longfei; Du, Jun; Lin, Pengfei; Tian, Quanyan; Kong, Junqia] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Linze Inland River Basin Res Stn, Chinese Ecosyst Res Network,Key Lab Ecohydrol Inl, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Gao, Yuan; Kong, Junqia] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gao, Yuan,He, Zhibin,Zhu, Xi,et al. Potential distribution and habitat suitability of Picea crassifolia with climate change scenarios[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,51(12).
APA	Gao, Yuan.,He, Zhibin.,Zhu, Xi.,Chen, Longfei.,Du, Jun.,...&Kong, Junqia.(2021).Potential distribution and habitat suitability of Picea crassifolia with climate change scenarios.CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH,51(12).
MLA	Gao, Yuan,et al."Potential distribution and habitat suitability of Picea crassifolia with climate change scenarios".CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH 51.12(2021).