气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improving China's summer precipitation prediction in 2020 by observational constrained bias correction

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00704-021-03693-y
	Improving China's summer precipitation prediction in 2020 by observational constrained bias correction
	Wei, Yun; Yu, Haipeng; Huang, Jianping; Liu, Xiaoyue; Zhou, Jie
通讯作者	Yu, HP (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change Cold &, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
起始页码	1317
结束页码	1331
卷号	145 期号:3-4
英文摘要	In summer 2020, precipitation in many parts of China reached its maximum in the past 60 years, and southern China suffered from severe flooding, which was mainly due to the strong westward subtropical high, the enhanced east Asian summer monsoon, the development of meridional circulation, and the active cold vortex in the middle and high latitudes. We tried to apply a statistical bias correction method to improve the prediction of summer precipitation at 160 stations in China in 2020. In summer 2020, the precipitation anomaly percentages were above 40% in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Basin. Using the bias correction method, the main rain belt of the corrected summer precipitation was located in the Yangtze River's middle reaches and the Yellow River Basin, which is in line with the observations, but it does not catch the trend of more summer precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin. In addition, the corrected predicted results can basically catch the trend of dryness in South and Southwest China. Relative to the original model output, the abnormal correlation coefficient (ACC) between the corrected predictions, and the observations increased from - 0.02 to 0.30, and the prediction score (PS) increased from 67.8 to 77.4 for summer rainfall in 2020. Moreover, the bias correction method showed stable and considerable improvement for the prediction of summer precipitation in China from 2014 to 2019. Overall, this study demonstrates that the bias correction method can effectively improve the accuracy of the summer precipitation predicted results in China.
关键词	YANGTZE-RIVER VALLEY DYNAMICAL SEASONAL PREDICTION MIDDLE-LOWER REACHES SYSTEMATIC-ERROR INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY STATISTICAL CORRECTION DOWNSCALING MODEL EAST-ASIA RAINFALL MONSOON
英文关键词	Bias correction; Summer precipitation prediction; China
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000668081700002
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254397
作者单位	[Wei, Yun; Huang, Jianping; Liu, Xiaoyue; Zhou, Jie] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Minist Educ, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Yu, Haipeng] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change Cold &, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wei, Yun,Yu, Haipeng,Huang, Jianping,et al. Improving China's summer precipitation prediction in 2020 by observational constrained bias correction[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,145(3-4).
APA	Wei, Yun,Yu, Haipeng,Huang, Jianping,Liu, Xiaoyue,&Zhou, Jie.(2021).Improving China's summer precipitation prediction in 2020 by observational constrained bias correction.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,145(3-4).
MLA	Wei, Yun,et al."Improving China's summer precipitation prediction in 2020 by observational constrained bias correction".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 145.3-4(2021).