气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future growth pattern projections under shared socioeconomic pathways: a municipal city bottom-up aggregated study based on a localised scenario and population projections for China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1080/1331677X.2021.1968309
	Future growth pattern projections under shared socioeconomic pathways: a municipal city bottom-up aggregated study based on a localised scenario and population projections for China
	Jiang, Daiwei; Chang, Yixin; Zhong, Fanglei; Yao, Wenge; Zhang, Yongnian; Ding, Xiaojiang; Huang, Chunlin
通讯作者	Zhong, FL (通讯作者)，Minzu Univ China, Sch Econ, Beijing, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1331-677X
EISSN	1848-9664
英文摘要	Precise multi-scenario projections of future economic outputs based on localised interpretations of global scenarios and major growth drivers are important for understanding long-term economic changes. However, few studies have focussed on localised interpretations, and many assume regional uniformity or use key parameters that are recursive or extrapolated by mathematical methods. This study provides a more intuitive and robust economic framework for projecting regional economic growth based on a neoclassical economic model and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenarios. A non-uniform version of SSP2 (the middle-of-the-road scenario) was developed, and more detailed population projections for China were adopted using municipal-level data for 340 districts and parameter settings based on China's recent development. The results show that China's GDP will vary substantially across SSPs by 2050. Per capita GDP ranges from 19,300 USD under SSP3 (fragmentation) to 41,100 USD under SSP5 (conventional development). Per capita GDP under SSP1 (sustainability) is slightly higher than under SSP2, but lower on average than under SSP5. However, SSP1 is a better choice overall because environmental quality and equity are higher. Per capita GDP growth will generally be higher in relatively low-income regions by 2050, and the upper-middle-income provinces will become China's new engine for economic growth.
关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH INVESTMENT FRAMEWORK EDUCATION ECONOMY
英文关键词	GDP projection; shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs); neoclassical economic model; localised scenario; China
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Business & Economics
WOS类目	Economics
WOS记录号	WOS:000690316900001
来源期刊	ECONOMIC RESEARCH-EKONOMSKA ISTRAZIVANJA
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/254019
作者单位	[Jiang, Daiwei; Chang, Yixin; Yao, Wenge; Zhang, Yongnian; Ding, Xiaojiang] Lanzhou Univ, Sch Econ, Lanzhou, Peoples R China; [Zhong, Fanglei] Minzu Univ China, Sch Econ, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Huang, Chunlin] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Lanzhou, Peoples R China; [Huang, Chunlin] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Remote Sensing Gansu Prov, Heihe Remote Sensing Expt Res Stn, Lanzhou, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang, Daiwei,Chang, Yixin,Zhong, Fanglei,et al. Future growth pattern projections under shared socioeconomic pathways: a municipal city bottom-up aggregated study based on a localised scenario and population projections for China[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2020.
APA	Jiang, Daiwei.,Chang, Yixin.,Zhong, Fanglei.,Yao, Wenge.,Zhang, Yongnian.,...&Huang, Chunlin.(2020).Future growth pattern projections under shared socioeconomic pathways: a municipal city bottom-up aggregated study based on a localised scenario and population projections for China.ECONOMIC RESEARCH-EKONOMSKA ISTRAZIVANJA.
MLA	Jiang, Daiwei,et al."Future growth pattern projections under shared socioeconomic pathways: a municipal city bottom-up aggregated study based on a localised scenario and population projections for China".ECONOMIC RESEARCH-EKONOMSKA ISTRAZIVANJA (2020).