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DOI	10.1016/j.seta.2021.101816
	Intra-day global horizontal irradiance forecast using FY-4A clear sky index
	Yang, Liwei; Gao, Xiaoqing; Hua, Jiajia; Wang, Liping
通讯作者	Gao, XQ (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Chinese Acad Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2213-1388
EISSN	2213-1396
卷号	50
英文摘要	Accurate forecasting of Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) plays an irreplaceable role in power system expansion, power generation production scheduling, maintenance scheduling and ensuring continuous power supply. A method for GHI forecasting based on FY-4A satellite images is proposed, called FY-4A-Heliosat. This method is derived from the clear sky model (MCclear) and the future clear sky index (CSI), which is obtained by comparing the continuous cloud albedo (CAL) maps derived from AGRI satellite images according to Heliosat-2 method. The forecast horizon is 30 min to 3 h with a 30-min horizon resolution. The combination of climatology and persistence model (CP) is chosen as reference forecasts. Under all sky conditions, the results show that compared with CP model, FY-4A-Heliosat model is better in most cases and seasons. The FY-4A-Heliosat method underestimates the GHI in four seasons for all time horizons. Annual studies indicate that the FY-4A-Heliosat method performs better than the CP method for all forecast horizons; the nRMSE is 17% to 25% for the annual performance. Forecasts with change in cloud conditions show that: the FY-4A-Heliosat method performs better than the CP method in clear, partially cloudy, overcast and clear-to-cloudy conditions. For the cloudy-to clear set, the FY-4A-Heliosat method needs to be improved future. The results demonstrate that the proposed method is suitable for very short term GHI forecasting.
关键词	SOLAR-RADIATION AIR-POLLUTION CLIMATOLOGY PERSISTENCE MODELS
英文关键词	Global solar irradiance; Solar forecast; Satellite-derived irradiance; FY-4A satellite; AGRI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Energy & Fuels
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Energy & Fuels
WOS记录号	WOS:000734494300005
来源期刊	SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND ASSESSMENTS
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/253922
作者单位	[Yang, Liwei; Gao, Xiaoqing] Chinese Acad Sci, Chinese Acad Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China; [Yang, Liwei; Gao, Xiaoqing] Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources Chinese Ac, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change Cold &, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Yang, Liwei] Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources Chinese Ac, Key Lab Desert & Desertificat, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Yang, Liwei] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, BEIJING 100049, Peoples R China; [Hua, Jiajia] Hebei Xiongan New Area Meteorol Serv, Xiongan 071700, Peoples R China; [Wang, Liping] Hengshui Meteorol Off, Hengshui 053000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Liwei,Gao, Xiaoqing,Hua, Jiajia,et al. Intra-day global horizontal irradiance forecast using FY-4A clear sky index[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2022,50.
APA	Yang, Liwei,Gao, Xiaoqing,Hua, Jiajia,&Wang, Liping.(2022).Intra-day global horizontal irradiance forecast using FY-4A clear sky index.SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND ASSESSMENTS,50.
MLA	Yang, Liwei,et al."Intra-day global horizontal irradiance forecast using FY-4A clear sky index".SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND ASSESSMENTS 50(2022).