气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

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DOI	10.3390/plants11050670
	MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
	Chen, Kaiyang; Wang, Bo; Chen, Chen; Zhou, Guoying
通讯作者	Zhou, GY (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Plateau Biol, Xining 810008, Peoples R China. ; Zhou, GY (通讯作者)，Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2022
EISSN	2223-7747
卷号	11 期号:5
英文摘要	As an important Tibetan medicine and a secondary protected plant in China, Pomatosace filicula is endemic to the country and is mainly distributed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). However, global climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions might lead to the extinction of P. filicula. To understand the potential spatial distribution of P. filicula in future global warming scenarios, we used the MaxEnt model to simulate changes in its suitable habitat that would occur by 2050 and 2070 using four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and five global climate models. The results showed that the QTP currently contains a suitable habitat for P. filicula and will continue to do so in the future. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the suitable habitat area would increase by 2050 but shrink slightly by 2070, with an average reduction of 2.7%. However, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the area of unsuitable habitat would expand by an average of 54.65% and 68.20% by 2050 and 2070, respectively. The changes in the area of suitable habitat under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios were similar, with the unsuitable area increasing by approximately 20% by 2050 and 2070. Under these two moderate RCPs, the total suitable area in 2070 would be greater than that in 2050. The top three environmental factors impacting the habitat distribution were altitude, annual precipitation (BIO12) and annual temperature range (BIO7). The cumulative contribution rate of these three factors was as high as 82.8%, indicating that they were the key factors affecting the distribution and adaptability of P. filicula, P. filicula grows well in damp and cold environments. Due to global warming, the QTP will become warmer and drier; thus, the growing area of P. filicula will move toward higher elevations and areas that are humid and cold. These areas are mainly found near the Three-River Region. Future climate change will aggravate the deterioration of the P. filicula habitat and increase the species' survival risk. This study describes the distribution of P. filicula and provides a basis for the protection of endangered plants in the QTP.
关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS MOUNTAIN PLANTS RANGE SHIFTS CONSERVATION BIODIVERSITY VALIDATION DIVERSITY EVOLUTION ELEVATION
英文关键词	Pomatosace filicula; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; climate change; MaxEnt model; potential distribution
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
WOS类目	Plant Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000768505800001
来源期刊	PLANTS-BASEL
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/253823
作者单位	[Chen, Kaiyang; Wang, Bo; Chen, Chen; Zhou, Guoying] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Plateau Biol, Xining 810008, Peoples R China; [Chen, Kaiyang; Wang, Bo; Chen, Chen; Zhou, Guoying] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Kaiyang,Wang, Bo,Chen, Chen,et al. MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2022,11(5).
APA	Chen, Kaiyang,Wang, Bo,Chen, Chen,&Zhou, Guoying.(2022).MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.PLANTS-BASEL,11(5).
MLA	Chen, Kaiyang,et al."MaxEnt Modeling to Predict the Current and Future Distribution of Pomatosace filicula under Climate Change Scenarios on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau".PLANTS-BASEL 11.5(2022).