气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic

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DOI	10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021
	Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic
	Chen, Jinlei; Kang, Shichang; Du, Wentao; Guo, Junming; Xu, Min; Zhang, Yulan; Zhong, Xinyue; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Jizu
通讯作者	Kang, SC (通讯作者)，Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China. ; Kang, SC (通讯作者)，Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1994-0416
EISSN	1994-0424
起始页码	5473
结束页码	5482
卷号	15 期号:12
英文摘要	The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by -0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October-December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021-2030.
关键词	EXTENT
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Physical Geography ; Geology
WOS类目	Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:000728551500001
来源期刊	CRYOSPHERE
来源机构	中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/253804
作者单位	[Chen, Jinlei; Kang, Shichang; Du, Wentao; Guo, Junming; Xu, Min; Zhang, Yulan; Zhang, Wei; Chen, Jizu] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, State Key Lab Cryospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China; [Kang, Shichang] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100039, Peoples R China; [Zhong, Xinyue] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Remote Sensing Gansu Prov, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Jinlei,Kang, Shichang,Du, Wentao,et al. Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic[J]. 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院,2021,15(12).
APA	Chen, Jinlei.,Kang, Shichang.,Du, Wentao.,Guo, Junming.,Xu, Min.,...&Chen, Jizu.(2021).Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic.CRYOSPHERE,15(12).
MLA	Chen, Jinlei,et al."Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic".CRYOSPHERE 15.12(2021).