气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-20991-1
	Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks
	Baker R.E.; Yang W.; Vecchi G.A.; Metcalf C.J.E.; Grenfell B.T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; climate change; climate conditions; epidemiology; health risk; Northern Hemisphere; risk factor; severe acute respiratory syndrome; viral disease; winter; Article; climate; coronavirus disease 2019; disease predisposition; human; illness trajectory; New York; nonhuman; Northern Hemisphere; pandemic; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; virus transmission; winter; algorithm; epidemic; epidemiology; isolation and purification; physiology; season; theoretical model; virology; SARS coronavirus; Algorithms; Climate; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2; Seasons
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251512
作者单位	High Meadows Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Baker R.E.,Yang W.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Baker R.E.,Yang W.,Vecchi G.A.,Metcalf C.J.E.,&Grenfell B.T..(2021).Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Baker R.E.,et al."Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).