气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-22194-0
	Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world
	Dolan F.; Lamontagne J.; Link R.; Hejazi M.; Reed P.; Edmonds J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Water scarcity is dynamic and complex, emerging from the combined influences of climate change, basin-level water resources, and managed systems’ adaptive capacities. Beyond geophysical stressors and responses, it is critical to also consider how multi-sector, multi-scale economic teleconnections mitigate or exacerbate water shortages. Here, we contribute a global-to-basin-scale exploratory analysis of potential water scarcity impacts by linking a global human-Earth system model, a global hydrologic model, and a metric for the loss of economic surplus due to resource shortages. We find that, dependent on scenario assumptions, major hydrologic basins can experience strongly positive or strongly negative economic impacts due to global trade dynamics and market adaptations to regional scarcity. In many cases, market adaptation profoundly magnifies economic uncertainty relative to hydrologic uncertainty. Our analysis finds that impactful scenarios are often combinations of standard scenarios, showcasing that planners cannot presume drivers of uncertainty in complex adaptive systems. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; climate change; complexity; economic impact; hydrological cycle; teleconnection; water resource; water stress; article; exploratory research; human; hydrological model; resource shortage; uncertainty; water insecurity
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251489
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA, United States; Department of Medicine, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, United States; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MA, United States; King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dolan F.,Lamontagne J.,Link R.,et al. Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Dolan F.,Lamontagne J.,Link R.,Hejazi M.,Reed P.,&Edmonds J..(2021).Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Dolan F.,et al."Evaluating the economic impact of water scarcity in a changing world".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).