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| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-021-22255-4 |
| Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration | |
| Schutte S.; Vestby J.; Carling J.; Buhaug H. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 2041-1723 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | Recent research suggests that climate variability and change significantly affect forced migration, within and across borders. Yet, migration is also informed by a range of non-climatic factors, and current assessments are impeded by a poor understanding of the relative importance of these determinants. Here, we evaluate the eligibility of climatic conditions relative to economic, political, and contextual factors for predicting bilateral asylum migration to the European Union—form of forced migration that has been causally linked to climate variability. Results from a machine-learning prediction framework reveal that drought and temperature anomalies are weak predictors of asylum migration, challenging simplistic notions of climate-driven refugee flows. Instead, core contextual characteristics shape latent migration potential whereas political violence and repression are the most powerful predictors of time-varying migration flows. Future asylum migration flows are likely to respond much more to political changes in vulnerable societies than to climate change. © 2021, The Author(s). |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | assessment method; bilateral agreement; climate conditions; climate variation; conceptual framework; economic activity; European Union; political change; political violence; refugee; research work; article; asylum (legal); climate change; drought; eligibility; European Union; forced migration; human; machine learning; prediction; refugee; violence |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Communications
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251480 |
| 作者单位 | Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Schutte S.,Vestby J.,Carling J.,et al. Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration[J],2021,12(1). |
| APA | Schutte S.,Vestby J.,Carling J.,&Buhaug H..(2021).Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration.Nature Communications,12(1). |
| MLA | Schutte S.,et al."Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration".Nature Communications 12.1(2021). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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