气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-23543-9
	A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations
	Wong T.E.; Cui Y.; Royer D.L.; Keller K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth’s radiative forcing and the resulting long-term Earth-system response. Current ESS estimates are subject to sizable uncertainties. Long-term carbon cycle models can provide a useful avenue to constrain ESS, but previous efforts either use rather informal statistical approaches or focus on discrete paleoevents. Here, we improve on previous ESS estimates by using a Bayesian approach to fuse deep-time CO2 and temperature data over the last 420 Myrs with a long-term carbon cycle model. Our median ESS estimate of 3.4 °C (2.6-4.7 °C; 5-95% range) shows a narrower range than previous assessments. We show that weaker chemical weathering relative to the a priori model configuration via reduced weatherable land area yields better agreement with temperature records during the Cretaceous. Research into improving the understanding about these weathering mechanisms hence provides potentially powerful avenues to further constrain this fundamental Earth-system property. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	calcium; carbon dioxide; magnesium carbonate; organic carbon; carbon cycle; chemical weathering; Cretaceous; detection method; observational method; paleoclimate; radiative forcing; Article; Bayes theorem; carbon cycle; Cretaceous; earth system sensitivity; evolution; model; paleoclimate; parameters; probability; radiative forcing; simulation; sulfur cycle; temperature; weathering
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251435
作者单位	School of Mathematical Sciences, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rochester, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Studies, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT, United States; Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wong T.E.,Cui Y.,Royer D.L.,et al. A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Wong T.E.,Cui Y.,Royer D.L.,&Keller K..(2021).A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Wong T.E.,et al."A tighter constraint on Earth-system sensitivity from long-term temperature and carbon-cycle observations".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).