气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-24747-9
	Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources
	Nikiel C.A.; Eltahir E.A.B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	For millennia the Nile supplied Egypt with more water than needed. As the population grew and the economy expanded, demand on water increased accordingly. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis to reconstruct how total demand on water outstripped supply of the Nile water in the late 1970s, starting from a surplus of about 20 km3 per year in the 1960s leading to a deficit of about 40 km3 per year by the late 2010s. The gap is satisfied by import of virtual water. The role of economic growth in driving per capita demand on water is quantified based on detailed analysis of water use by agriculture and other sectors. We develop and test an empirical model of water demand in Egypt that relates demand on water to growth rates in the economy and population. Looking forward, we project that within this decade of the 2020 s, under nominal scenarios of population and economic growth, Egypt is likely to import more virtual water than the water supplied by the Nile, bringing into question the historical characterization of Egypt as “the gift of the Nile”. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	water; economic growth; empirical analysis; water demand; water use; agriculture; Article; controlled study; economic development; Egypt; fluid intake; growth rate; human; water supply; Egypt
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251378
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ralph M. Parsons Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nikiel C.A.,Eltahir E.A.B.. Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Nikiel C.A.,&Eltahir E.A.B..(2021).Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Nikiel C.A.,et al."Past and future trends of Egypt’s water consumption and its sources".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).