气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-25910-y
	Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria
	Redding D.W.; Gibb R.; Dan-Nwafor C.C.; Ilori E.A.; Yashe R.U.; Oladele S.H.; Amedu M.O.; Iniobong A.; Attfield L.A.; Donnelly C.A.; Abubakar I.; Jones K.E.; Ihekweazu C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Lassa fever is a longstanding public health concern in West Africa. Recent molecular studies have confirmed the fundamental role of the rodent host (Mastomys natalensis) in driving human infections, but control and prevention efforts remain hampered by a limited baseline understanding of the disease’s true incidence, geographical distribution and underlying drivers. Here, we show that Lassa fever occurrence and incidence is influenced by climate, poverty, agriculture and urbanisation factors. However, heterogeneous reporting processes and diagnostic laboratory access also appear to be important drivers of the patchy distribution of observed disease incidence. Using spatiotemporal predictive models we show that including climatic variability added retrospective predictive value over a baseline model (11% decrease in out-of-sample predictive error). However, predictions for 2020 show that a climate-driven model performs similarly overall to the baseline model. Overall, with ongoing improvements in surveillance there may be potential for forecasting Lassa fever incidence to inform health planning. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	disease incidence; geographical distribution; geographical variation; health policy; public health; rodent; urbanization; agricultural land; Article; climate change; disease surveillance; food availability; forecasting; geographic distribution; health care planning; human; incidence; Lassa fever; morbidity; Nigeria; nonhuman; predictive value; public health; rural area; seasonal variation; socioeconomics; urban area; vegetation dynamics; animal; climate; disease carrier; epidemiological monitoring; geography; Lassa fever; Lassa virus; murine; pathogenicity; poverty; retrospective study; spatiotemporal analysis; urbanization; virology; Nigeria; Mastomys natalensis; Rodentia; Animals; Climate; Disease Reservoirs; Epidemiological Monitoring; Geography; Humans; Incidence; Lassa Fever; Lassa virus; Murinae; Nigeria; Poverty; Retrospective Studies; Spatio-Temporal Analysis; Urbanization
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251347
作者单位	Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London, NW1 4RY, United Kingdom; Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom; Nigeria Centre for Disease Control, Abuja, Nigeria; World Health Organisation, Abuja, Nigeria; MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom; Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3LB, United Kingdom; Institute of Global Health, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Redding D.W.,Gibb R.,Dan-Nwafor C.C.,et al. Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Redding D.W..,Gibb R..,Dan-Nwafor C.C..,Ilori E.A..,Yashe R.U..,...&Ihekweazu C..(2021).Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Redding D.W.,et al."Geographical drivers and climate-linked dynamics of Lassa fever in Nigeria".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).