气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8
	Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise
	Dura T.; Garner A.J.; Weiss R.; Kopp R.E.; Engelhart S.E.; Witter R.C.; Briggs R.W.; Mueller C.S.; Nelson A.R.; Horton B.P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	amplification; earthquake magnitude; seismic hazard; subduction; subduction zone; tsunami; Alaska; article; California; earthquake; sea level rise; seashore; tsunami; California; Long Beach [California]; Los Angeles [California]; United States
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251294
作者单位	Department of Geosciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, United States; Center for Coastal Studies, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA 24061, United States; Department of Environmental Science, Rowan University, Glassboro, NJ 08028, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ 08854, United States; Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Department of Geography, Durham University, Lower Mountjoy, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom; U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK 99508, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, CO 80401, United States; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore; Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dura T.,Garner A.J.,Weiss R.,et al. Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Dura T..,Garner A.J..,Weiss R..,Kopp R.E..,Engelhart S.E..,...&Horton B.P..(2021).Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Dura T.,et al."Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).