气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y
	Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss
	Smith D.M.; Eade R.; Andrews M.B.; Ayres H.; Clark A.; Chripko S.; Deser C.; Dunstone N.J.; García-Serrano J.; Gastineau G.; Graff L.S.; Hardiman S.C.; He B.; Hermanson L.; Jung T.; Knight J.; Levine X.; Magnusdottir G.; Manzini E.; Matei D.; Mori M.; Msadek R.; Ortega P.; Peings Y.; Scaife A.A.; Screen J.A.; Seabrook M.; Semmler T.; Sigmond M.; Streffing J.; Sun L.; Walsh A.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	13 期号:1
英文摘要	The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models. © 2022. Crown.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; greenhouse gas; latitude; North Atlantic oscillation; sea ice; simulation; winter
来源期刊	Nature communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251275
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; CECI, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, CERFACS, Toulouse, France; National Center for Atmospheric Research, CO, Boulder, United States; Group of Meteorology, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain; Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris, France; Norwegian Meteorological InstituteOslo, Norway; State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing, China; Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany; Institute of Environmental Physics, University of BremenBremen, Germany; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain; Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA; Max-Planck-Institut für MeteorologieHamburg, Germany; Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu Universit...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith D.M.,Eade R.,Andrews M.B.,et al. Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss[J],2022,13(1).
APA	Smith D.M..,Eade R..,Andrews M.B..,Ayres H..,Clark A..,...&Walsh A..(2022).Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss.Nature communications,13(1).
MLA	Smith D.M.,et al."Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss".Nature communications 13.1(2022).