气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Asian summer monsoon responses to the change of land‒sea thermodynamic contrast in a warming climate: CMIP6 projections

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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2022.01.001
	Asian summer monsoon responses to the change of land‒sea thermodynamic contrast in a warming climate: CMIP6 projections
	Wu Q.-Y.; Li Q.-Q.; Ding Y.-H.; Shen X.-Y.; Zhao M.-C.; Zhu Y.-X.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1674-9278
英文摘要	It is of practical significance to use the updated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to study the impact of changes in land‒sea thermodynamic contrast (TC) on the Asian summer monsoon under different scenarios and to compare the similarities and differences of the impact mechanisms between different monsoon regions. In this study, we investigated future changes of the Asian summer monsoon under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios using 19 CMIP6 models. The intensity of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) is projected to decrease by 2.6%, 6.3%, 10.1%, and 11.1%, while the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity is projected to increase by 4.6%, 7.9%, 7.4%, and 9.8% until the end of the 21st century for SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Moreover, summer precipitation in Asia is projected to increase remarkably in 2015–2099 under all four scenarios. The inconsistent warming trends over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), Northwest Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean would greatly impact the monsoon circulations. The upper-troposphere warming trend over the surrounding oceans is remarkably greater than that over the TP, while the near-surface warming trend over the surrounding oceans is smaller than that over the TP. The decrease of upper-troposphere TC between the TP and tropical Indian Ocean results in a weakening of the SASM circulation. The enhancement of the lower-troposphere TC between the TP and Northwest Pacific would strengthen the EASM circulation. Moisture budget analysis shows that the water-vapor would increase in the future, which would thermodynamically enhance summer precipitation through the anomalous vertical moisture transport associated with mean flow. The strengthening of the meridional circulation of the EASM would increase monsoon precipitation, while the weakening of zonal circulation of the SASM would dynamically reduce South Asian summer precipitation. © 2022 The Authors
英文关键词	CMIP6 projection; East Asian summer monsoon; Global warming; Land‒sea thermodynamic contrast; South Asian summer monsoon
语种	英语
来源期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/251231
作者单位	Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory on Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China; Training Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu Q.-Y.,Li Q.-Q.,Ding Y.-H.,等. Asian summer monsoon responses to the change of land‒sea thermodynamic contrast in a warming climate: CMIP6 projections[J],2022.
APA	Wu Q.-Y.,Li Q.-Q.,Ding Y.-H.,Shen X.-Y.,Zhao M.-C.,&Zhu Y.-X..(2022).Asian summer monsoon responses to the change of land‒sea thermodynamic contrast in a warming climate: CMIP6 projections.Advances in Climate Change Research.
MLA	Wu Q.-Y.,et al."Asian summer monsoon responses to the change of land‒sea thermodynamic contrast in a warming climate: CMIP6 projections".Advances in Climate Change Research (2022).