气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-021-00825-x
	Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming
	Gjermundsen A.; Nummelin A.; Olivié D.; Bentsen M.; Seland Ø.; Schulz M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1752-0894
卷号	14 期号:10
英文摘要	The effective climate sensitivity estimates the equilibrium response of near-surface temperature to doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and is a widely used metric to characterize potential global warming. Earth system models participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) exhibit considerable spread in effective climate sensitivity estimates. Cloud feedbacks are thought to be the cause of this, with marine boundary layer clouds over the Southern Ocean playing an important role. Here, we show that Southern Ocean deep convection is a major contributor to the CMIP6 intermodel spread in effective climate sensitivity. By comparing two Earth system models with very different sensitivities, we find that greater storage of heat at depth can delay the Southern Ocean surface warming and associated cloud response, thereby delaying global surface warming by centuries. The link between Southern Ocean convection and effective climate sensitivity is seen across 41 CMIP6 models, with low-sensitivity models exhibiting substantial deep ocean warming. Our results reveal the influence of Southern Ocean convection on potential long-term climate warming. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	boundary layer; carbon dioxide; CMIP; global warming; greenhouse gas; long-term change; oceanic convection; Southern Ocean
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250854
作者单位	Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; NORCE Norwegian Research Centre AS, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gjermundsen A.,Nummelin A.,Olivié D.,et al. Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming[J],2021,14(10).
APA	Gjermundsen A.,Nummelin A.,Olivié D.,Bentsen M.,Seland Ø.,&Schulz M..(2021).Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming.Nature Geoscience,14(10).
MLA	Gjermundsen A.,et al."Shutdown of Southern Ocean convection controls long-term greenhouse gas-induced warming".Nature Geoscience 14.10(2021).