气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-021-00833-x
	Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing
	Grant L.; Vanderkelen I.; Gudmundsson L.; Tan Z.; Perroud M.; Stepanenko V.M.; Debolskiy A.V.; Droppers B.; Janssen A.B.G.; Woolway R.I.; Choulga M.; Balsamo G.; Kirillin G.; Schewe J.; Zhao F.; del Valle I.V.; Golub M.; Pierson D.; Marcé R.; Seneviratne S.I.; Thiery W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1752-0894
卷号	14 期号:11
英文摘要	Lake ecosystems are jeopardized by the impacts of climate change on ice seasonality and water temperatures. Yet historical simulations have not been used to formally attribute changes in lake ice and temperature to anthropogenic drivers. In addition, future projections of these properties are limited to individual lakes or global simulations from single lake models. Here we uncover the human imprint on lakes worldwide using hindcasts and projections from five lake models. Reanalysed trends in lake temperature and ice cover in recent decades are extremely unlikely to be explained by pre-industrial climate variability alone. Ice-cover trends in reanalysis are consistent with lake model simulations under historical conditions, providing attribution of lake changes to anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, lake temperature, ice thickness and duration scale robustly with global mean air temperature across future climate scenarios (+0.9 °C °Cair–1, –0.033 m °Cair–1 and –9.7 d °Cair–1, respectively). These impacts would profoundly alter the functioning of lake ecosystems and the services they provide. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air temperature; climate change; human activity; ice cover; seasonality
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250847
作者单位	Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium; ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russian Federation; Moscow Center for Fundamental and Applied Mathematics, Moscow, Russian Federation; Obukhov Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russian Federation; Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, Netherlands; European Space Agency Climate Office, ECSAT, Harwell Campus, Didcot, United Kingdom; Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, United Kingdom; Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries, Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of E...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Grant L.,Vanderkelen I.,Gudmundsson L.,et al. Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing[J],2021,14(11).
APA	Grant L..,Vanderkelen I..,Gudmundsson L..,Tan Z..,Perroud M..,...&Thiery W..(2021).Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing.Nature Geoscience,14(11).
MLA	Grant L.,et al."Attribution of global lake systems change to anthropogenic forcing".Nature Geoscience 14.11(2021).