气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1
	Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates
	Studholme J.; Fedorov A.V.; Gulev S.K.; Emanuel K.; Hodges K.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1752-0894
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	Tropical cyclones (TCs, also known as hurricanes and typhoons) generally form at low latitudes with access to the warm waters of the tropical oceans, but far enough off the equator to allow planetary rotation to cause aggregating convection to spin up into coherent vortices. Yet, current prognostic frameworks for TC latitudes make contradictory predictions for climate change. Simulations of past warm climates, such as the Eocene and Pliocene, show that TCs can form and intensify at higher latitudes than of those during pre-industrial conditions. Observations and model projections for the twenty-first century indicate that TCs may again migrate poleward in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which poses profound risks to the planet’s most populous regions. Previous studies largely neglected the complex processes that occur at temporal and spatial scales of individual storms as these are poorly resolved in numerical models. Here we review this mesoscale physics in the context of responses to climate warming of the Hadley circulation, jet streams and Intertropical Convergence Zone. We conclude that twenty-first century TCs will most probably occupy a broader range of latitudes than those of the past 3 million years as low-latitude genesis will be supplemented with increasing mid-latitude TC favourability, although precise estimates for future migration remain beyond current methodologies. © 2021, Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; convection; Eocene; global warming; greenhouse gas; numerical model; Paleocene-Eocene boundary; planetary rotation; tropical cyclone
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250809
作者单位	Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States; LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne University, Paris, France; Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Moscow, Russian Federation; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Studholme J.,Fedorov A.V.,Gulev S.K.,et al. Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates[J],2022,15(1).
APA	Studholme J.,Fedorov A.V.,Gulev S.K.,Emanuel K.,&Hodges K..(2022).Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates.Nature Geoscience,15(1).
MLA	Studholme J.,et al."Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates".Nature Geoscience 15.1(2022).