气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of warmer climate periods on flood hazard in the European Alps

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DOI	10.1038/s41561-021-00878-y
	Impact of warmer climate periods on flood hazard in the European Alps
	Wilhelm B.; Rapuc W.; Amann B.; Anselmetti F.S.; Arnaud F.; Blanchet J.; Brauer A.; Czymzik M.; Giguet-Covex C.; Gilli A.; Glur L.; Grosjean M.; Irmler R.; Nicolle M.; Sabatier P.; Swierczynski T.; Wirth S.B.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	1752-0894
卷号	15 期号:2
英文摘要	Flooding is a pervasive natural hazard—costly in both human and economic terms—and climate change will probably exacerbate risks around the world. Mountainous areas, such as the densely populated European Alps, are of particular concern as topography and atmospheric conditions can result in large and sudden floods. In addition, the Alps are experiencing a high warming rate, which is probably leading to more heavy rainfall events. Here, we compile palaeoflood records to test the still uncertain impact these climatic trends might have on flood frequency and magnitude in the European Alps. We demonstrate that a warming of 0.5–1.2 °C, whether naturally or anthropogenically forced, led to a 25–50% decrease in the frequency of large (≥10 yr return period) floods. This decreasing trend is not conclusive in records covering less than 200 years but persistent in those ranging from 200 to 9,000 years. By contrast, extreme (>100 yr) floods may increase with a similar degree of warming in certain small alpine catchments impacted by local intensification of extreme rainfall. Our results show how long, continuous palaeoflood records can be used to disentangle complex climate–flooding relationships and assist in improving risk assessment and management at a regional scale. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; flood frequency; paleoflood; rainfall; Alps
来源期刊	Nature Geoscience
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250798
作者单位	Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, Institute for Geosciences and Environmental research (IGE), Grenoble, France; Université Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS UMR 5204, EDYTEM, Chambéry, France; Renard Centre of Marine Geology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium; UMR 7266 Littoral, Environnement et Sociétés (LIENSs), CNRS-Université de La Rochelle, La Rochelle, France; Institute of Geological Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde (IOW), Rostock, Germany; Geological Institute, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Helvetia Swiss Insurance Company Ltd, St Gallen, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Institut für Geographie, Friedrich-Schiller Universität Jena, Jena, Germany; Normandie Université, Unirouen, Unicaen, CNRS, M2C, Rouen, France; Centre for ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wilhelm B.,Rapuc W.,Amann B.,et al. Impact of warmer climate periods on flood hazard in the European Alps[J],2022,15(2).
APA	Wilhelm B..,Rapuc W..,Amann B..,Anselmetti F.S..,Arnaud F..,...&Wirth S.B..(2022).Impact of warmer climate periods on flood hazard in the European Alps.Nature Geoscience,15(2).
MLA	Wilhelm B.,et al."Impact of warmer climate periods on flood hazard in the European Alps".Nature Geoscience 15.2(2022).