气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21305-1
	Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China
	Yang J.; Zhou M.; Ren Z.; Li M.; Wang B.; Liu D.L.; Ou C.-Q.; Yin P.; Sun J.; Tong S.; Wang H.; Zhang C.; Wang J.; Guo Y.; Liu Q.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Recent studies have reported a variety of health consequences of climate change. However, the vulnerability of individuals and cities to climate change remains to be evaluated. We project the excess cause-, age-, region-, and education-specific mortality attributable to future high temperatures in 161 Chinese districts/counties using 28 global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). To assess the influence of population ageing on the projection of future heat-related mortality, we further project the age-specific effect estimates under five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Heat-related excess mortality is projected to increase from 1.9% (95% eCI: 0.2–3.3%) in the 2010s to 2.4% (0.4–4.1%) in the 2030 s and 5.5% (0.5–9.9%) in the 2090 s under RCP8.5, with corresponding relative changes of 0.5% (0.0–1.2%) and 3.6% (−0.5–7.5%). The projected slopes are steeper in southern, eastern, central and northern China. People with cardiorespiratory diseases, females, the elderly and those with low educational attainment could be more affected. Population ageing amplifies future heat-related excess deaths 2.3- to 5.8-fold under different SSPs, particularly for the northeast region. Our findings can help guide public health responses to ameliorate the risk of climate change. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	cardiovascular disease; cause of death; climate change; climate modeling; extreme event; high temperature; scenario analysis; socioeconomic status; aging; Article; cause of death; China; climate change; disease surveillance; educational status; environmental temperature; global climate; heat; high temperature; human; Monte Carlo method; mortality; mortality rate; public health; sensitivity analysis; socioeconomics; temperature; thermal exposure; adolescent; adult; aged; cardiovascular disease; child; climate change; computer simulation; female; heat; infant; lung disease; male; middle aged; newborn; preschool child; statistical model; survival analysis; Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Cardiovascular Diseases; Child; Child, Preschool; China; Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Educational Status; Female; Hot Temperature; Humans; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Lung Diseases; Male; Middle Aged; Models, Statistical; Public Health; Survival Analysis
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250760
作者单位	Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China; Guangdong-Hongkong-Macau Joint Laboratory of Collaborative Innovation for Environmental Quality, Guangzhou, China; JNU-QUT Joint Laboratory for Air Quality Science and Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China; National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System (LREIS), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; State Key Laboratory of Oncology in Southern China, Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Prevention Center, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, China; NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; State Key Laboratory of Organ Failure Research, Department of Biostatistics, Guan...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang J.,Zhou M.,Ren Z.,et al. Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Yang J..,Zhou M..,Ren Z..,Li M..,Wang B..,...&Liu Q..(2021).Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Yang J.,et al."Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).