气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21399-7
	Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests
	Forzieri G.; Girardello M.; Ceccherini G.; Spinoni J.; Feyen L.; Hartmann H.; Beck P.S.A.; Camps-Valls G.; Chirici G.; Mauri A.; Cescatti A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Forest disturbance regimes are expected to intensify as Earth’s climate changes. Quantifying forest vulnerability to disturbances and understanding the underlying mechanisms is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, observational evidence is largely missing at regional to continental scales. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of European forests to fires, windthrows and insect outbreaks during the period 1979–2018 by integrating machine learning with disturbance data and satellite products. We show that about 33.4 billion tonnes of forest biomass could be seriously affected by these disturbances, with higher relative losses when exposed to windthrows (40%) and fires (34%) compared to insect outbreaks (26%). The spatial pattern in vulnerability is strongly controlled by the interplay between forest characteristics and background climate. Hotspot regions for vulnerability are located at the borders of the climate envelope, in both southern and northern Europe. There is a clear trend in overall forest vulnerability that is driven by a warming-induced reduction in plant defence mechanisms to insect outbreaks, especially at high latitudes. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptation; climate change; environmental disturbance; habitat fragmentation; machine learning; pest outbreak; plant defense; satellite data; vulnerability; Article; biomass; carbon sequestration; carbon storage; climate change; controlled study; defense mechanism; disease predisposition; ecosystem; environmental factor; European; forest structure; greenhouse effect; machine learning; moisture; nonhuman; secondary metabolism; stomatal conductance; water stress; Europe; forest; theoretical model; time factor; Europe; Hexapoda; Biomass; Climate Change; Europe; Forests; Models, Theoretical; Time Factors
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250758
作者单位	European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy; Department of Biogeochemical Processes, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany; Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, Paterna, Spain; Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Florence, Italy; Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Forzieri G.,Girardello M.,Ceccherini G.,et al. Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Forzieri G..,Girardello M..,Ceccherini G..,Spinoni J..,Feyen L..,...&Cescatti A..(2021).Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Forzieri G.,et al."Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).