气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-21857-2
	Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
	Exarchou E.; Ortega P.; Rodríguez-Fonseca B.; Losada T.; Polo I.; Prodhomme C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key mode of climate variability with worldwide climate impacts. Recent studies have highlighted the impact of other tropical oceans on its variability. In particular, observations have demonstrated that summer Atlantic Niños (Niñas) favor the development of Pacific Niñas (Niños) the following winter, but it is unclear how well climate models capture this teleconnection and its role in defining the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO. Here we use an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems to demonstrate that a better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability in summer and its lagged teleconnection mechanism with the Pacific relates to enhanced predictive capacity of autumn/winter ENSO. An additional sensitivity study further shows that correcting SST variability in equatorial Atlantic improves different aspects of forecast skill in the Tropical Pacific, boosting ENSO skill. This study thus emphasizes that new efforts to improve the representation of equatorial Atlantic variability, a region with long standing systematic model biases, can foster predictive skill in the region, the Tropical Pacific and beyond, through the global impacts of ENSO. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; climate effect; climate modeling; climate prediction; climate variation; El Nino; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; sampling bias; teleconnection; winter; article; autumn; El Nino; human; skill; summer; winter; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250742
作者单位	Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain; Departamento de Fisica de la Tierra y Astrofisica, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Instituto de Geociencias, IGEO (CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain; Group of Meteorology, Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Barcelona, Spain; CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Exarchou E.,Ortega P.,Rodríguez-Fonseca B.,et al. Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Exarchou E.,Ortega P.,Rodríguez-Fonseca B.,Losada T.,Polo I.,&Prodhomme C..(2021).Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Exarchou E.,et al."Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).