气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0
	Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change
	Naughten K.A.; De Rydt J.; Rosier S.H.R.; Jenkins A.; Holland P.R.; Ridley J.K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	hot water; climate change; global change; ice shelf; surface temperature; threshold; timescale; uncertainty analysis; warm water; Antarctica; Article; climate change; climate warming; continental shelf; controlled study; density gradient; ice sheet; ice shelf; melting point; temperature; Weddell Sea; Antarctica; Ronne Ice Shelf; West Antarctica
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250729
作者单位	British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Naughten K.A.,De Rydt J.,Rosier S.H.R.,et al. Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Naughten K.A.,De Rydt J.,Rosier S.H.R.,Jenkins A.,Holland P.R.,&Ridley J.K..(2021).Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Naughten K.A.,et al."Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).