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DOI | 10.1038/s41467-021-22259-0 |
Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change | |
Naughten K.A.; De Rydt J.; Rosier S.H.R.; Jenkins A.; Holland P.R.; Ridley J.K. | |
发表日期 | 2021 |
ISSN | 2041-1723 |
卷号 | 12期号:1 |
英文摘要 | A potentially irreversible threshold in Antarctic ice shelf melting would be crossed if the ocean cavity beneath the large Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf were to become flooded with warm water from the deep ocean. Previous studies have identified this possibility, but there is great uncertainty as to how easily it could occur. Here, we show, using a coupled ice sheet-ocean model forced by climate change scenarios, that any increase in ice shelf melting is likely to be preceded by an extended period of reduced melting. Climate change weakens the circulation beneath the ice shelf, leading to colder water and reduced melting. Warm water begins to intrude into the cavity when global mean surface temperatures rise by approximately 7 °C above pre-industrial, which is unlikely to occur this century. However, this result should not be considered evidence that the region is unconditionally stable. Unless global temperatures plateau, increased melting will eventually prevail. © 2021, The Author(s). |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | hot water; climate change; global change; ice shelf; surface temperature; threshold; timescale; uncertainty analysis; warm water; Antarctica; Article; climate change; climate warming; continental shelf; controlled study; density gradient; ice sheet; ice shelf; melting point; temperature; Weddell Sea; Antarctica; Ronne Ice Shelf; West Antarctica |
来源期刊 | Nature Communications |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250729 |
作者单位 | British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Northumbria University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Naughten K.A.,De Rydt J.,Rosier S.H.R.,et al. Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change[J],2021,12(1). |
APA | Naughten K.A.,De Rydt J.,Rosier S.H.R.,Jenkins A.,Holland P.R.,&Ridley J.K..(2021).Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change.Nature Communications,12(1). |
MLA | Naughten K.A.,et al."Two-timescale response of a large Antarctic ice shelf to climate change".Nature Communications 12.1(2021). |
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