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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-22884-9
	1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
	Keyßer L.T.; Lenzen M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	1.5 °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	carbon dioxide; fuel; alternative energy; climate change; economic impact; emission control; Gross Domestic Product; integrated approach; mitigation; scenario analysis; technological change; Article; biotransformation; carbon sequestration; climate change; combustion; comparative study; controlled study; economic development; energy consumption; environmental sustainability; gross national product; land use; renewable energy; social change
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250699
作者单位	ISA, School of Physics A28, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Department of Environmental Systems Science, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Keyßer L.T.,Lenzen M.. 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Keyßer L.T.,&Lenzen M..(2021).1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Keyßer L.T.,et al."1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).