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| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-021-22392-w |
| A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback | |
| Zhang X.; Wang Y.-P.; Rayner P.J.; Ciais P.; Huang K.; Luo Y.; Piao S.; Wang Z.; Xia J.; Zhao W.; Zheng X.; Tian J.; Zhang Y. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 2041-1723 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | The climate-carbon cycle feedback is one of the most important climate-amplifying feedbacks of the Earth system, and is quantified as a function of carbon-concentration feedback parameter (β) and carbon-climate feedback parameter (γ). However, the global climate-amplifying effect from this feedback loop (determined by the gain factor, g) has not been quantified from observations. Here we apply a Fourier analysis-based carbon cycle feedback framework to the reconstructed records from 1850 to 2017 and 1000 to 1850 to estimate β and γ. We show that the β-feedback varies by less than 10% with an average of 3.22 ± 0.32 GtC ppm−1 for 1880–2017, whereas the γ-feedback increases from −33 ± 14 GtC K−1 on a decadal scale to −122 ± 60 GtC K−1 on a centennial scale for 1000–1850. Feedback analysis further reveals that the current amplification effect from the carbon cycle feedback is small (g is 0.01 ± 0.05), which is much lower than the estimates by the advanced Earth system models (g is 0.09 ± 0.04 for the historical period and is 0.15 ± 0.08 for the RCP8.5 scenario), implying that the future allowable CO2 emissions could be 9 ± 7% more. Therefore, our findings provide new insights about the strength of climate-carbon cycle feedback and about observational constraints on models for projecting future climate. © 2021, The Author(s). |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | carbon dioxide; amplification; carbon cycle; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; climate feedback; concentration (composition); estimation method; parameterization; Article; carbon cycle; carbon footprint; climate; feedback system; Fourier analysis; historical period; temperature |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Communications
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250692 |
| 作者单位 | Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Research Center for Global Change and Ecological Forecasting, School of Ecological and Environmental Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; Terrestrial Biogeochemistry Group, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, China; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC, Australia; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States; Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China; Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in ... |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang X.,Wang Y.-P.,Rayner P.J.,et al. A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback[J],2021,12(1). |
| APA | Zhang X..,Wang Y.-P..,Rayner P.J..,Ciais P..,Huang K..,...&Zhang Y..(2021).A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback.Nature Communications,12(1). |
| MLA | Zhang X.,et al."A small climate-amplifying effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback".Nature Communications 12.1(2021). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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