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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-23411-6
	Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño
	Zhang W.; Jiang F.; Stuecker M.F.; Jin F.-F.; Timmermann A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the primary driver of year-to-year global climate variability, is known to influence the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST), especially during boreal spring season. Focusing on statistical lead-lag relationships, previous studies have proposed that interannual NTA SST variability can also feed back on ENSO in a predictable manner. However, these studies did not properly account for ENSO’s autocorrelation and the fact that the SST in the Atlantic and Pacific, as well as their interaction are seasonally modulated. This can lead to misinterpretations of causality and the spurious identification of Atlantic precursors for ENSO. Revisiting this issue under consideration of seasonality, time-varying ENSO frequency, and greenhouse warming, we demonstrate that the cross-correlation characteristics between NTA SST and ENSO, are consistent with a one-way Pacific to Atlantic forcing, even though the interpretation of lead-lag relationships may suggest otherwise. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air-sea interaction; annual variation; autocorrelation; climate variation; data interpretation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; global climate; identification method; sea surface temperature; seasonality; surface temperature; article; cross correlation; El Nino; greenhouse; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; warming; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (Tropical)
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250688
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education (KLME), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Oceanography & International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST), University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, Honolulu, HI, United States; Institute for Basic Science, Center for Climate Physics, Busan, South Korea; Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang W.,Jiang F.,Stuecker M.F.,et al. Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Zhang W.,Jiang F.,Stuecker M.F.,Jin F.-F.,&Timmermann A..(2021).Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Zhang W.,et al."Spurious North Tropical Atlantic precursors to El Niño".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).