气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4
	Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa
	Chemison A.; Ramstein G.; Tompkins A.M.; Defrance D.; Camus G.; Charra M.; Caminade C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	rain; acceleration; climate change; disease transmission; emergence; malaria; public health; Africa; Article; climate change; cooling; Greenland; ice sheet; infection risk; malaria; melting point; simulation; animal; Anopheles; greenhouse effect; Greenland; human; ice cover; malaria; mosquito vector; prevalence; theoretical model; Arctic; East Africa; Greenland; West Africa; Animals; Anopheles; Global Warming; Greenland; Humans; Ice Cover; Malaria; Models, Theoretical; Mosquito Vectors; Prevalence; Rain
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250660
作者单位	Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnnment (LSCE), CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy; The Climate Data factory, Paris, France; Department of Livestock and One Health, Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom; Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chemison A.,Ramstein G.,Tompkins A.M.,et al. Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Chemison A..,Ramstein G..,Tompkins A.M..,Defrance D..,Camus G..,...&Caminade C..(2021).Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Chemison A.,et al."Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).