气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z
	Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
	Risbey J.S.; Squire D.T.; Black A.S.; DelSole T.; Lepore C.; Matear R.J.; Monselesan D.P.; Moore T.S.; Richardson D.; Schepen A.; Tippett M.K.; Tozer C.R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Assessments of climate forecast skill depend on choices made by the assessor. In this perspective, we use forecasts of the El Niño-Southern-Oscillation to outline the impact of bias-correction on skill. Many assessments of skill from hindcasts (past forecasts) are probably overestimates of attainable forecast skill because the hindcasts are informed by observations over the period assessed that would not be available to real forecasts. Differences between hindcast and forecast skill result from changes in model biases from the period used to form forecast anomalies to the period over which the forecast is made. The relative skill rankings of models can change between hindcast and forecast systems because different models have different changes in bias across periods. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	assessment method; correction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; forecasting method; hindcasting; El Nino; human; review; skill
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250654
作者单位	CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, TAS, Australia; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; CSIRO Land & Water, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Risbey J.S.,Squire D.T.,Black A.S.,et al. Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Risbey J.S..,Squire D.T..,Black A.S..,DelSole T..,Lepore C..,...&Tozer C.R..(2021).Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Risbey J.S.,et al."Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).