气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-25504-8
	Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change
	Deroubaix A.; Labuhn I.; Camredon M.; Gaubert B.; Monerie P.-A.; Popp M.; Ramarohetra J.; Ruprich-Robert Y.; Silvers L.G.; Siour G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	The energy demand for heating and cooling buildings is changing with global warming. Using proxies of climate-driven energy demand based on the heating and cooling Degree-Days methodology applied to thirty global climate model simulations, we show that, over all continental areas, the climate-driven energy demand trends for heating and cooling were weak, changing by less than 10% from 1950 to 1990, but become stronger from 1990 to 2030, changing by more than 10%. With the multi-model mean, the increasing trends in cooling energy demand are more pronounced than the decreasing trends in heating. The changes in cooling, however, are highly variable depending on individual simulations, ranging from a few to several hundred percent in most of the densely populated mid-latitude areas. This work presents an example of the challenges that accompany future energy demand quantification as a result of the uncertainty in the projected climate. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; cooling; energy resource; global climate; heating; quantitative analysis; uncertainty analysis; article; climate change; cooling; global climate; heating; latitude; simulation; uncertainty
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250628
作者单位	LMD - IPSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, IPSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Palaiseau, France; Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany; LISA, Université Paris-Est Créteil, CNRS, Université de Paris, IPSL, Créteil, France; Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory (ACOM), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Independent researcher, Barcelona, Spain; Barcelona Supercomputing Center, BSC, Barcelona, Spain; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deroubaix A.,Labuhn I.,Camredon M.,et al. Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Deroubaix A..,Labuhn I..,Camredon M..,Gaubert B..,Monerie P.-A..,...&Siour G..(2021).Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Deroubaix A.,et al."Large uncertainties in trends of energy demand for heating and cooling under climate change".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).