气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41467-021-26370-0
	Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening
	Bonnet R.; Swingedouw D.; Gastineau G.; Boucher O.; Deshayes J.; Hourdin F.; Mignot J.; Servonnat J.; Sima A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	12 期号:1
英文摘要	Some of the new generation CMIP6 models are characterised by a strong temperature increase in response to increasing greenhouse gases concentration1. At first glance, these models seem less consistent with the temperature warming observed over the last decades. Here, we investigate this issue through the prism of low-frequency internal variability by comparing with observations an ensemble of 32 historical simulations performed with the IPSL-CM6A-LR model, characterized by a rather large climate sensitivity. We show that members with the smallest rates of global warming over the past 6-7 decades are also those with a large internally-driven weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). This subset of members also matches several AMOC observational fingerprints, which are in line with such a weakening. This suggests that internal variability from the Atlantic Ocean may have dampened the magnitude of global warming over the historical era. Taking into account this AMOC weakening over the past decades means that it will be harder to avoid crossing the 2 °C warming threshold. © 2021, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate; global warming; magnitude; risk; temperature; threshold; Article; Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; Atlantic Ocean; climate change; greenhouse effect; historical period; risk assessment; sea surface temperature; simulation; warming; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250595
作者单位	Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France; Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux, Université de Bordeaux/CNRS, Bordeaux, France; Laboratoire d’Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, France; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS/Ecole Normale Supérieure/Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, France; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bonnet R.,Swingedouw D.,Gastineau G.,et al. Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening[J],2021,12(1).
APA	Bonnet R..,Swingedouw D..,Gastineau G..,Boucher O..,Deshayes J..,...&Sima A..(2021).Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening.Nature Communications,12(1).
MLA	Bonnet R.,et al."Increased risk of near term global warming due to a recent AMOC weakening".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).