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| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-021-27364-8 |
| Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years | |
| Emanuel K. | |
| 发表日期 | 2021 |
| ISSN | 2041-1723 |
| 卷号 | 12期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | Historical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a tropical cyclone downscaling model driven by three global climate analyses that are based mostly on sea surface temperature and surface pressure data. The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19th century, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change. Most metrics of tropical cyclones downscaled over all the tropics show weak and/or insignificant trends over the last century, illustrating the special nature of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology. © 2021, The Author(s). |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| scopus关键词 | climate change; downscaling; drought; global climate; hurricane; sea surface temperature; storm; tropical cyclone; aerosol; article; drought; global climate; hurricane; sea surface temperature; tropics; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North) |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Communications
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250562 |
| 作者单位 | Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Mass. Ave., Rm 54-1814, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Emanuel K.. Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years[J],2021,12(1). |
| APA | Emanuel K..(2021).Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years.Nature Communications,12(1). |
| MLA | Emanuel K.."Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years".Nature Communications 12.1(2021). |
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