| DOI | 10.1038/s41467-021-27515-x
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| Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century |
| Olonscheck D.; Schurer A.P.; Lücke L.; Hegerl G.C.
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| 发表日期 | 2021
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| ISSN | 2041-1723
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| 卷号 | 12期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | Global warming is expected to not only impact mean temperatures but also temperature variability, substantially altering climate extremes. Here we show that human-caused changes in internal year-to-year temperature variability are expected to emerge from the unforced range by the end of the 21st century across climate model initial-condition large ensembles forced with a strong global warming scenario. Different simulated changes in globally averaged regional temperature variability between models can be explained by a trade-off between strong increases in variability on tropical land and substantial decreases in high latitudes, both shown by most models. This latitudinal pattern of temperature variability change is consistent with loss of sea ice in high latitudes and changes in vegetation cover in the tropics. Instrumental records are broadly in line with this emerging pattern, but have data gaps in key regions. Paleoclimate proxy reconstructions support the simulated magnitude and distribution of temperature variability. Our findings strengthen the need for urgent mitigation to avoid unprecedented changes in temperature variability. © 2021, The Author(s). |
| 语种 | 英语
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| scopus关键词 | climate forcing; climate modeling; climate variation; extreme event; global warming; temperature gradient; trade-off; twenty first century; article; greenhouse effect; human; latitude; paleoclimate; sea ice; simulation; tropics; vegetation |
| 来源期刊 | Nature Communications
(IF:11.878[JCR-2018],13.811[5-Year]) |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文
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| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250550
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| 作者单位 | School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JW, United Kingdom; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, 20146, Germany
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Olonscheck D.,Schurer A.P.,Lücke L.,et al. Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century[J],2021,12(1).
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| APA |
Olonscheck D.,Schurer A.P.,Lücke L.,&Hegerl G.C..(2021).Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century.Nature Communications,12(1).
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| MLA |
Olonscheck D.,et al."Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century".Nature Communications 12.1(2021).
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