气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities

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DOI	10.1038/s41467-022-28145-7
	The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities
	Santos-Vega M.; Martinez P.P.; Vaishnav K.G.; Kohli V.; Desai V.; Bouma M.J.; Pascual M.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	2041-1723
卷号	13 期号:1
英文摘要	The rapid pace of urbanization makes it imperative that we better understand the influence of climate forcing on urban malaria transmission. Despite extensive study of temperature effects in vector-borne infections in general, consideration of relative humidity remains limited. With process-based dynamical models informed by almost two decades of monthly surveillance data, we address the role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of epidemic malaria in two semi-arid cities of India. We show a strong and significant effect of humidity during the pre-transmission season on malaria burden in coastal Surat and more arid inland Ahmedabad. Simulations of the climate-driven transmission model with the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates) of the parameters retrospectively capture the observed variability of disease incidence, and also prospectively predict that of ‘out-of-fit’ cases in more recent years, with high accuracy. Our findings indicate that relative humidity is a critical factor in the spread of urban malaria and potentially other vector-borne epidemics, and that climate change and lack of hydrological planning in cities might jeopardize malaria elimination efforts. © 2022, The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; climate change; epidemic; malaria; relative humidity; Ahmedabad; Gujarat; India; India; Surat
来源期刊	Nature Communications
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/250526
作者单位	Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Chicago, Chicago, United States; Departamento de Ingeniería Biomédica, Grupo de Investigación en Biología Matemática y Computacional BIOMAC, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia; Department of Microbiology and Department of Statistics, University of Illinois at Urbana, Champaign, Champaign, IL, United States; Vector Borne Diseases Control Department, Health Department, Surat Municipal Corporation, Surat, India; Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, Ahmedabad, India; Urban Health and Climate Resilience Center of Excellence, (UHCRCE), Surat, India; ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Santos-Vega M.,Martinez P.P.,Vaishnav K.G.,et al. The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities[J],2022,13(1).
APA	Santos-Vega M..,Martinez P.P..,Vaishnav K.G..,Kohli V..,Desai V..,...&Pascual M..(2022).The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities.Nature Communications,13(1).
MLA	Santos-Vega M.,et al."The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities".Nature Communications 13.1(2022).