气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modelling human–natural systems interactions with implications for twenty-first-century warming

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-021-00826-z
	Modelling human–natural systems interactions with implications for twenty-first-century warming
	Ramanathan V.; Xu Y.; Versaci A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2398-9629
英文摘要	The redesign of energy and economic systems to stabilize climate change is hindered by the lack of quantitative treatment of the role that human–natural systems interactions play in what society can do to tackle climate change. Here we present an integrated socio–energy–ecologic–climate model framework for understanding the role of human–natural systems interactions in climate change. We focus on constraints on climate stabilization imposed by feedbacks between global warming and societal actions to decarbonize energy use and to scale up atmospheric-carbon extraction. The energy–climate feedbacks are modelled through four warming-dependent response times for societal, policy and technological actions inferred from historical data. We show that a lack of societal response beyond 2030 would result in a warming in excess of 3 °C. Speeding up societal response times and technology diffusion times by a factor of two along with a dramatic boost in start-up investment in renewables and atmospheric-carbon extraction technologies and short-lived climate pollutants mitigation by 2030 can stabilize the warming below 1.5 °C. The model’s analytical framework and the analyses presented here reveal the fundamental importance of factoring in the role of human–natural systems interactions in the transition to zero emissions when formulating and designing robust climate solutions. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249858
作者单位	Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Geosciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ramanathan V.,Xu Y.,Versaci A.. Modelling human–natural systems interactions with implications for twenty-first-century warming[J],2021.
APA	Ramanathan V.,Xu Y.,&Versaci A..(2021).Modelling human–natural systems interactions with implications for twenty-first-century warming.Nature Sustainability.
MLA	Ramanathan V.,et al."Modelling human–natural systems interactions with implications for twenty-first-century warming".Nature Sustainability (2021).