气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-021-00784-6
	China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment
	Zhao H.; Chang J.; Havlík P.; van Dijk M.; Valin H.; Janssens C.; Ma L.; Bai Z.; Herrero M.; Smith P.; Obersteiner M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	1042
结束页码	1051
卷号	4 期号:12
英文摘要	Satisfying China’s food demand without harming the environment is one of the greatest sustainability challenges for the coming decades. Here we provide a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of the environmental impacts of China’s growing demand on the country itself and on its trading partners. We find that the increasing food demand, especially for livestock products (~16%–30% across all scenarios), would domestically require ~3–12 Mha of additional pasture between 2020 and 2050, resulting in ~−2% to +16% growth in agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The projected ~15%–24% reliance on agricultural imports in 2050 would result in ~90–175 Mha of agricultural land area and ~88–226 MtCO2-equivalent yr−1of GHG emissions virtually imported to China, which account for ~26%–46% and ~13%–32% of China’s global environmental impacts, respectively. The distribution of the environmental impacts between China and the rest of the world would substantially depend on development of trade openness. Thus, to limit the negative environmental impacts of its growing food consumption, besides domestic policies, China needs to also take responsibility in the development of sustainable international trade. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agriculture; Food supply; Gas emissions; Greenhouse gases; International trade; Sustainable development; Agricultural greenhouse; Agricultural land; Food demand; Forward looking; Global environmental impacts; Greenhouse gas emissions; Growing demand; Land areas; Trade and environments; Trading partners; Environmental impact
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249697
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Soil Ecology, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetic and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijingshan District, Beijing, China; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University and Research, The Hague, Netherlands; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Heverlee, Belgium; Department of Global Development, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences & Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao H.,Chang J.,Havlík P.,等. China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment[J],2021,4(12).
APA	Zhao H..,Chang J..,Havlík P..,van Dijk M..,Valin H..,...&Obersteiner M..(2021).China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment.Nature Sustainability,4(12).
MLA	Zhao H.,et al."China’s future food demand and its implications for trade and environment".Nature Sustainability 4.12(2021).