气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A global model to forecast coastal hardening and mitigate associated socioecological risks

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41893-021-00780-w
	A global model to forecast coastal hardening and mitigate associated socioecological risks
	Floerl O.; Atalah J.; Bugnot A.B.; Chandler M.; Dafforn K.A.; Floerl L.; Zaiko A.; Major R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2398-9629
起始页码	1060
结束页码	1067
卷号	4 期号:12
英文摘要	Around the world, coastal urbanization continues to replace natural marine habitats with engineered structures, resulting in wholesale changes to shallow-water ecosystems and associated socioecological impacts. This process is expected to continue over the coming decades. The development of meaningful strategies to minimize future impacts requires an understanding of the rate at which ‘coastal hardening’ will take place regionally. Here we show that coastal infrastructure has replaced more than half (52.9 ± 4.9%) of the coastline associated with 30 global urban centres. The regional extent of coastal hardening is explained by eight predictor variables associated with shipping, boating, regional economies, populations and coastline length. Using a case study approach, we forecasted a 50–76% expansion of coastal infrastructure over a 25-year period. Our model can aid decision-makers to anticipate increases in coastal hardening, supporting identification and management of future threats to coastal ecosystems alongside social, economic and cultural objectives. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Decision making; Ecosystems; Case study approach; Coastal infrastructure; Engineered structures; Global models; Predictor variables; Regional economy; Shallow water ecosystems; Socio-ecological; Socio-ecological risks; Urban centers; Hardening
来源期刊	Nature Sustainability
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249694
作者单位	Cawthron Institute, Nelson, New Zealand; University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Sydney Institute of Marine Science, Mosman, NSW, Australia; Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, Australia; University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Floerl O.,Atalah J.,Bugnot A.B.,et al. A global model to forecast coastal hardening and mitigate associated socioecological risks[J],2021,4(12).
APA	Floerl O..,Atalah J..,Bugnot A.B..,Chandler M..,Dafforn K.A..,...&Major R..(2021).A global model to forecast coastal hardening and mitigate associated socioecological risks.Nature Sustainability,4(12).
MLA	Floerl O.,et al."A global model to forecast coastal hardening and mitigate associated socioecological risks".Nature Sustainability 4.12(2021).