气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/wcc.700
	Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes
	Duvat V.K.E.; Magnan A.K.; Perry C.T.; Spencer T.; Bell J.D.; Wabnitz C.C.C.; Webb A.P.; White I.; McInnes K.L.; Gattuso J.-P.; Graham N.A.J.; Nunn P.D.; Le Cozannet G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1757-7780
卷号	12 期号:3
英文摘要	Recent assessments of future risk to atoll habitability have focused on island erosion and submergence, and have overlooked the effects of other climate-related drivers, as well as differences between ocean basins and island types. Here we investigate the cumulative risk arising from multiple drivers (sea-level rise; changes in rainfall, ocean–atmosphere oscillations and tropical cyclone intensity; ocean warming and acidification) to five Habitability Pillars: Land, Freshwater supply, Food supply, Settlements and infrastructure, and Economic activities. Risk is assessed for urban and rural islands of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, in 2050 and 2090, and considering a moderate adaptation scenario. Risks will be highest in the Western Pacific which will experience increased island destabilization together with a high threat to freshwater, and decreased land-based and marine food supply from reef-dependent fish and tuna and tuna-like resources. Risk accumulation will occur at a lower rate in the Central Pacific (lower pressure on land, with more limited cascading effects on other Habitability Pillars; increase in pelagic fish stocks) and the Central Indian Ocean (mostly experiencing increased land destabilization and reef degradation). Risk levels will vary significantly between urban islands, depending on geomorphology and local shoreline disturbances. Rural islands will experience less contrasting risk levels, but higher risks than urban islands in the second half of the century. This article is categorized under: Trans-Disciplinary Perspectives > Regional Reviews. © 2021 Wiley Periodicals LLC.
关键词	atolls climate change impacts habitability Indian Ocean Pacific Ocean reef island
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Economics; Fish; Food supply; Hurricanes; Reefs; Risk perception; Sea level; Storms; Water; Adaptation scenarios; Cascading effects; Disciplinary perspective; Economic activities; Environmental change; Freshwater supply; Reef degradation; Tropical cyclone intensity; Risk assessment; atoll; climate change; climate effect; coral reef; environmental disturbance; environmental factor; environmental risk; shoreline change; Indian Ocean; Pacific Ocean; Matthiola
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249646
作者单位	UMR LIENSs 7266, La Rochelle University-CNRS, Bâtiment ILE, La Rochelle, France; Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences-Po, Paris, France; Department of Geography, College of Life & Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, United Kingdom; Cambridge Coastal Research Unit, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security (ANCORS), Innovation Campus, University of WollongongNSW, Australia; Center for Oceans, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, United States; Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada; Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Sweden; Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Tuvalu Coastal Adaptation Project (TCAP), Resilience & Sustainable Development Unit, United Nations Development Programme, Suva, Fiji; Australian National University, Fenner School of Environment...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Duvat V.K.E.,Magnan A.K.,Perry C.T.,et al. Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes[J],2021,12(3).
APA	Duvat V.K.E..,Magnan A.K..,Perry C.T..,Spencer T..,Bell J.D..,...&Le Cozannet G..(2021).Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,12(3).
MLA	Duvat V.K.E.,et al."Risks to future atoll habitability from climate-driven environmental changes".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 12.3(2021).